The next succession clash in the ANC will be over the post of deputy president at the party’s 2022 national conference, when President Cyril Ramaphosa is widely expected to secure election to the top post for a second term.
Whoever is elected as deputy president will be in line for the top job when Ramaphosa finishes his second term at the ANC helm in 2027.
While eyes naturally fall on Ramaphosa’s current deputy, David Mabuza, there are questions over his capacity to carry out the task. He’s spent six weeks of the past two months in Russia for medical treatment.
There are also questions over whether he even has the appetite for the top job.
Asked about this by the FM, Mabuza says his attitude is that members of the ANC should not be preoccupied with positions. "Our main focus is to ensure that the ANC is united and capable to respond to the aspirations of our people, the imperatives of a developmental state and, ultimately, to find measures that will adequately mitigate the triple challenges of inequality, poverty and unemployment."
Of his lengthy absence, he says that he, like all South Africans, has the right to access health care — and he has the right to privacy around that.
But he did take the nation into his confidence when, as premier of Mpumalanga in 2018, he said he had been poisoned and had received life-saving treatment in Russia.
"Under the circumstances, it would indeed be medically imprudent for anyone to abruptly abandon medical treatment by medical practitioners who are intimately au fait with one’s medical profile," Mabuza says now.
He adds that he is "responding very well to treatment", "remains as healthy as anyone" of his age, and is fine to perform his duties.
While Mabuza’s "unity approach" at the 2017 Nasrec elective conference helped secure him the deputy presidency, a similar arrangement may be difficult at the next conference.
He says he works closely and collaboratively with Ramaphosa, dismissing any talk of a strained relationship between the pair. Ramaphosa has also come out to bat for Mabuza, most recently during a question and answer session in parliament.
But insiders say that while Mabuza remains a factor in the race, no-one really knows what he’s thinking.
Our main focus is to ensure that the ANC is united and able to respond to the aspirations of our people and the imperatives of a developmental state
— David Mabuza
"He keeps his cards close to his chest and looks at the political situation until the very last minute and then makes a decision. For now, no-one really knows what he wants," says a source from his former base in Mpumalanga.
This is in keeping with Mabuza’s modus operandi: "the Cat", as he famously described himself, has a penchant for keeping his opponents guessing.
At Nasrec, for example, he stunned Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma’s backers by throwing his province’s support behind Ramaphosa.
The signs had been there. He’d refused to endorse her at the Mpumalanga provincial general council that year, opting for a "unity" approach instead — but many radical economic transformation (RET) backers felt betrayed by him.
While Mabuza continues to enjoy support in his province, there are deep divisions, with his loyalists protesting outside provincial party headquarters last month to say they had been left out of the electoral list process.
The Mpumalanga elective conference is overdue and it will be a key factor in determining where the province’s loyalties lie — and how much support Mabuza continues to enjoy there.
It’s been challenging for provincial strongmen — many were elevated to national office at Nasrec — to build a following outside their base. This is among the main reasons a second term for Ramaphosa seems a fait accompli.
But beyond Ramaphosa, the power plays in the party are largely unknown. In part, this is due to the lockdown and the ANC’s inability to hold a number of elective conferences as well as its midterm policy meeting, the national general council (NGC). That usually provides a measure of where the balance of forces lies.
To complicate matters further, the RET faction is largely neutralised, which means the political environment is ripe for realignment. This realignment could coalesce around candidates to succeed Ramaphosa, including Mabuza.
Another name that’s been mentioned is that of Thandi Modise who, the Sunday Times reports, is Ramaphosa’s preferred successor.
Ramaphosa loyalists have told the FM that a female deputy president is on the cards, but there is also potential for a young candidate.
Other rumoured contenders are party chair Gwede Mantashe, treasurer Paul Mashatile, former health minister Zweli Mkhize (though he is tainted by the Digital Vibes scandal, corruption allegations have not stopped the ANC before) and tourism minister Lindiwe Sisulu.
Mantashe would be a disaster, given his poor legacy as ANC secretary-general and his performance in the minerals & energy portfolio. Mashatile would be a market-friendly, youthful contender for the post, while Modise also leaves a strong impression.
But how the party structures are lining up remains a mystery until elective conferences — or, at the very least, the NGC — take place.
It is only then that there will be a proper indication of the provinces’ numerical strength.
KwaZulu-Natal, for now, remains the party’s largest province, dispatching the largest delegation to its elective gathering. Mpumalanga was the second-largest at Nasrec. But whether this remains the case is not known. And it is crucial in determining which way the party could swing.
In the meantime, Mabuza is the man in the hot seat. Only time, and the Cat, will tell whether it will remain this way.
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