May 25 marks 100 days since Cyril Ramaphosa was sworn in as SA’s fifth president. The shift away from the Zuma years has undoubtedly been significant: the Ramaphosa era has ushered in renewed hope and optimism. But he inherited a dysfunctional government, a fractured society and a deeply divided governing party.
So is Ramaphosa winning?
To answer this, the Paternoster Group has developed a framework for analysis called "Cyril Watch" with five cluster headings and 15 indicators. Here’s what it tells us.
Political leadership — taking tough decisions at the top
So far, Ramaphosa has barely put a foot wrong. He has distanced himself from the Zuma administration — no mean feat as he was Zuma’s deputy from 2014. Aided by his #TummyMustFall early morning walks, he has been able to project himself as both energetic and approachable, in contrast to his predecessor.
His first state of the nation address, less than 48 hours after Zuma resigned, was well delivered and well received.
He had to hide his talents under the Zuma bushel for years and kept a relatively low profile during his decade in business before that, so many people exposed to his leadership talents for the first time have been pleasantly surprised.
For those who knew him in the 1980s and 1990s, it was less surprising.
But the real test is whether he will be sharp enough and, where necessary, ruthless enough to use power now that he has won it.
The answer to that question, based on his performance so far, must be a resounding yes. He ousted Zuma from power, reshuffled the cabinet, fired or suspended key agents of the state capture project (such as Tom Moyane at the SA Revenue Service), and embarked on a wide-ranging clean-up of state-owned enterprise boards.
Ramaphosa and his government may not be fully trusted by everyone — there is a good deal of mud-slinging based on his career and personal wealth, especially from the "Zupta" rump who continue to bang the "white monopoly capital" drum — but he and his government are taken seriously, which is a big shift from recent years. People now listen to what the president and his ministers say, aware that there is no "deep state" pulling the strings behind the scenes, as there was under Zuma.
Putting the right people in the right jobs in government — such as Nhlanhla Nene at treasury, Pravin Gordhan at public enterprises and Lindiwe Sisulu at international relations — has brought credibility and authority to government.
But has Ramaphosa imposed his vision on his country?
The thuma mina (send me) rhetoric of his state of the nation address resonated strongly. Yet, with uncertainties about big policy issues such as land and mining, and progress yet to be made in job creation, Ramaphosa has a long way to go before it can be said he has put in place a strategic single vision for all to see. Still, a careful reading of his statements shows a clear-minded approach to priorities.
Perhaps a strategic single vision will only emerge if he receives a fresh mandate after the 2019 election. Until then he will have to continue to emphasise his government’s approach to revitalising economic growth — too many potential investors remain unconvinced, looking for clearer signals that Ramaphosa is able to execute the structural reforms needed.
Governance and corruption — uncapturing the state
Swift action has been taken at Eskom, SAA, Prasa, Denel and Transnet with complete overhauls of their boards. Ramaphosa’s "enforcer-in-chief" Gordhan announced in his budget vote speech on May 15 that Safcol and Alexkor will be next.
For those looking for tangible examples of progress in confronting corruption in the public sector, Eskom has set the pace: lifestyle audits have been instituted. But Gordhan faces the risk of being stymied by the financial difficulties of many of these state-owned enterprises.
Recently Ramaphosa said he would grasp the intelligence network nettle when he highlighted his intention to create a review panel to deal with allegations of corruption and wrongdoing in the state security agency — a source of the "deep state" problems.
Policy lightning rods — balancing stability with transition
Land reform. How Ramaphosa handles the land issue will have a major impact on the success of his first year in office and represents a real test of his political skill: too radical a stance will undermine newfound confidence in SA’s inward investment prospects; too moderate a stance could provoke strong resistance from the nationalist wing within the ANC as well as from Julius Malema’s EFF.
So far, so good, with the ANC emerging from its recent land reform indaba with a carefully worded statement that aligns with the president’s own approach. But Ramaphosa continues to walk a tightrope.
Mining charter. In his state of the nation address Ramaphosa set out his stall: mining is a sunrise and not a sunset sector. So, the mining charter negotiations are a litmus test for his administration’s commitment to removing obstacles to economic growth. Until the new mining charter is agreed by all stakeholders, the jury is out.
Fiscal stability. It is too early into the new budget cycle to assess whether government is on track with its public expenditure targets, given the tight fiscal space Ramaphosa inherited. Opposition parties are watching for signs of continued excess in the use of state resources, so it will be a lightning-rod issue for the new administration. In the short term, attention will focus on the presidency’s own budget (on May 23).
Parliamentary questions have extracted interesting data about the cost of the bloated cabinet, and Ramaphosa will be under pressure to explain when and if he will restructure his cabinet and the executive. The public sector wage talks have yet to be concluded and any increase above inflation will strain the fiscus further — another test of his mettle.
Socioeconomic recovery and the social compact — forging consensus for economic growth
There are signs of impatience in the investor and corporate communities. Even though there is goodwill towards Ramaphosa, there’s anxiety over whether he can deliver. But, given his considered approach to building a sustainable consensus, people must be patient. In the short term they’ll have to assess his performance based on whether he is putting in place the consensus-forming processes, such as the investor summit he has mentioned and a jobs summit in which all social partners will have to strongly commit to stimulate employment creation. Ramaphosa has a race against the clock. These processes will need to be up and running by September, and show tangible progress by December.
The ANC — keeping his party in the rearview mirror
Factional disputes within the ANC still constitute a major threat to Ramaphosa’s leadership. Pushback from the "Zupta" rump in the North West, Free State and Kwa-Zulu Natal continues to undermine the drive towards unity. Ramaphosa has demonstrated his determination to rid the ANC of its most rotten elements, returning home early from a Commonwealth summit in London to begin the process of removing North West premier Supra Mahumapelo, who defied calls from the ANC’s national working committee to quit.
In assessing Ramaphosa’s performance against these "key performance indicators", it is crucial to distinguish between those things over which he has almost full authority (such as the cabinet reshuffle), those over which he has only partial authority (the jobs summit), and those over which he has hardly any control (global commodity prices).
Applying the football scoring system — three points for a win (green light), one for a draw (orange) and nought for a loss (red) — Ramaphosa gets 29/45 (64%).
Given the huge challenges, long to-do list, uncongenial fiscal and economic context and the dismal Zuma legacy, this represents a strong performance by the new president.
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