It is conventional wisdom that generals and politicians should avoid waging war on more than one front. Such battles stretch your resources to breaking point and require constant attention lest there be a surprise attack.
President Cyril Ramaphosa is fighting on four fronts:
• He must consolidate his position within the ANC as his enemies attempt to weaken him from within;
• He must breathe life into a damaged state that has lost the will and the capacity to deliver effectively;
• He must persuade a jaded electorate to back his party; and
• He must win over investors to turn a moribund economy around.
The tensions are real: retain party unity by placating the authors of state capture, and the programme to rebuild the state falters and the electorate becomes sceptical; emphasise a radical policy shift to persuade voters that democracy will finally deliver, and investors become restless.
Shortly after taking office on February 16 — roughly 100 days ago — Ramaphosa announced his first cabinet. Expectations were high.
He had made it plain he wanted no truck with the Zuma-era ministers who had overseen "state capture", and he had won a major victory by getting the ANC’s national executive committee to agree unanimously that he should replace Zuma immediately, rather than after the 2019 election.
The hope was that his cabinet would sweep out Zuma’s allies and present a bold new incorruptible face to the world.
He had told parliament in his state of the nation address a day after being sworn in: "It is critical that the structure and size of the state is optimally suited to meet the needs of the people and ensure the most efficient allocation of public resources. We will therefore initiate a process to review the configuration, number and size of national government departments."
But the cabinet he announced was far from free of the Zuma infestation. After a lengthy televised delay that undermined his promise for all meetings to begin on time, a tense-looking Ramaphosa presented an executive that seemed like a political compromise.
He retained Malusi Gigaba, moving him out of finance but granting him the powerful home affairs portfolio, which he had occupied before. Under his stewardship the department had fawned over the Guptas, fast-tracking their citizenship and even issuing them multiple passports.
He retained other unimpressive figures such as Bathabile Dlamini, who was given a new women’s ministry in the presidency, and Nomvula Mokonyane, who took over communications.
What really took the nation’s breath away was his announcement that David Mabuza, the former premier of Mpumalanga, would be his deputy. A man who had been at the centre of a swathe of scandals was now a heartbeat away from the presidency and in pole position to succeed Ramaphosa.
It appeared that Ramaphosa’s weakness within the ANC had been exposed.
But his cabinet had its strengths. He might have spared some Zumarites, but he kept his eye on the portfolios that really mattered in the war against state capture.
Ramaphosa’s biographer, Anthony Butler, believes his cabinet decisions were on the money. "His key cabinet appointments have been astute. Former president Jacob Zuma’s finance minister, Gigaba, was left to carry the can for Vat increases and spending cuts in this year’s budget, before being replaced. The key malfeasants of the Zuma era are being removed through transparent processes rather than by an ill-considered purge."
He returned Nhlanhla Nene to the finance ministry. Nene, a quiet, steady operator, had been fired by Zuma in December 2015 after he refused to authorise an SAA funding arrangement proposed by Zuma’s friend, Dudu Myeni, chair of the airline’s board.
And he placed Pravin Gordhan — who was also fired by Zuma — in charge of public enterprises.
These were canny moves. With these two portfolios in the right hands, the taps that had gushed money into the state-capture bucket could be closed.
Zuma had placed loyalists in all the state-owned enterprises and they had overseen the diversion of procurement resources into a raft of companies linked to the Guptas and Zuma’s son, Duduzane. This flow of cash and patronage was the fuel that powered Zuma’s influence within the ANC.
Instead of hacking away at the giant rotten tree trunk, Ramaphosa was burrowing underground, severing the roots. To bastardise Friedrich Engels, the scene had been set for the withering away of state capture.
At the height of his persecution by Zuma, Gordhan had famously asked the public to "connect the dots".
Now, back in a government office in Pretoria, he seems at ease. "We’ve connected the dots. We’re in a better position to understand what state capture was all about — creating conditions for extraction of state resources," Gordhan says.
"Compromised people were being placed in key positions in the state to facilitate and/or undertake the extraction of resources."
This approach was simple and devastating: "Get rid of good people. Replace them with sycophants."
He says he received a handover report of a couple of pages. "I was obviously not going to be told who manipulated which board."
Ramaphosa’s mandate to Gordhan is to restore confidence and good governance in the enterprises by starting at the top with their boards and their senior executives.
The boards of Eskom, arms company Denel and transport utility Transnet are among those that have already felt the effects of the new broom.
Ramaphosa did not wait to become president before acting on Eskom. With around R95bn in revenue from electricity generation and debt running into hundreds of billions of rands, Eskom has become a financial black hole, requiring regular injections of cash and loan guarantees.
Under the stewardship of Brian Molefe and Matshela Koko the power company had signed coal-supply contracts worth billions of rands with Gupta-linked companies.
A new board led by Jabu Mabuza was appointed in January — a day before Ramaphosa jetted into Davos to sell his vision to world leaders and investors.
With the new board in place and a new CEO to be announced soon, possibly this week, Gordhan wants to bring stability to Eskom — and to the other rickety companies.
His next move will be to ask the boards to review the business models of the enterprises to assess their viability. "We need to understand the financial position of these entities. How much revenue will all these entities bring? What is the cost base?"
All options for turning them around are on the table, including "measures to increase financial viability and, in line with accepted policy, forms of private sector involvement".
The private sector is eager for Ramaphosa’s new dawn to succeed.
A leading banker put it this way: "Eskom is in intensive care and it needs a recovery programme.
"When it gets into a general ward we can start thinking about life after hospital."
The investment community is looking at whether Eskom can fulfil its debt redemption obligations in August.
"The market is attaching a lot of significance to that," the banker says.
Market commentators’ estimates of the equity injection required at Eskom are startling. By some estimates, it requires recapitalisation of around R175bn.
To raise this kind of money, "you have to take private capital into the assets". Private investors might take minority stakes in parts of Eskom, such as generating capacity and the transmission grid.
One example is a recent private investment of US$5bn in a pipeline in Brazil.
Colin Coleman, head of the Goldman Sachs SA office, believes progress has been made with the appointment of the new board headed by Mabuza.
The naming of the right management team is the next step. The turnaround is vital to SA improving its status with lenders and to growing the economy.
Coleman is optimistic. "There’s been an absolute turnaround in inward capital flows. International investors are extremely positive and constructive."
In his February speech, Ramaphosa referred to some asset managers who thought SA would be the hot emerging market of the year. He was talking about Goldman Sachs.
"Goldman Sachs’s view that SA is the hot emerging market of 2018 ... remains strong. The forecast is 2.6% growth," says Coleman.
Working in Ramaphosa’s favour is "synchronised global economic growth" and the "rising commodity environment, which — excluding oil — is good for SA", he says. "The recipe for growth is well cooked."
The most pressing concern among investors, says Coleman, is whether Ramaphosa has the "political capital" to implement his plans.
Ramaphosa’s base within the broader ANC stands on the shoulders of trade union support — Cosatu was the first organisation allied to the ANC to openly endorse his candidacy. But fixing the economy might require actions distasteful to the union federation.
Turning the balance sheets of state-owned companies around is hard to imagine without dealing with bloated, overpaid staff. But "restructuring" at Eskom and SAA would anger Cosatu. Ramaphosa would have to decide whether to use up some of his political capital.
The same applies to negotiations over wages with the public sector unions. Treasury has budgeted for an increase of 1.6% over inflation, which it pegs at 4%. The unions see inflation at above 5%. The gap is not huge but the unions could decide to go to the trenches to send Ramaphosa a message that they expect him to be onside. The consequences for government would be to weaken the already precarious ability to deliver as money would have to be taken from other programmes.
Ramaphosa faces other challenges on the political front. He surprised observers by announcing that the ANC would support an EFF resolution in parliament to review whether the constitution should be amended to allow for the expropriation of land without compensation. The move has alarmed farmers and international investors wary of a Zimbabwe-style invasion of private land.
Ramaphosa has been at pains to say such expropriation should not damage agricultural productivity or the economy.
But he is serious about changing the distribution of ownership of land. At his 65th birthday party in November last year he spoke passionately about the need for accelerated land ownership.
Gordhan says land ownership is essential to empowering a broad sector of society financially by placing "asset ownership in the hands of citizens".
It is not just about rural land. By giving people title deeds, government will empower them with an asset that can be used to raise capital and fuel entrepreneurship.
"The land issue is not an issue about whites and blacks. The land issue is about the colonial past. Rectifying history can happen in a more focused way," says Gordhan.
In Coleman’s view, "business has got comfortable with the idea of accelerated land reform ... My main concern is that, whatever policy is adopted, it is backed by an institutional capacity in the land department to be executed."
But, Coleman cautions, "business is very strongly against any tipping over into the dilution of property rights".
The stabilisation of public enterprises will not push the economy forward and create employment on a scale sufficient to offer the growing ranks of disillusioned young people the prospect of a decent future.
Ramaphosa has announced a youth employment service and wants to expand support for entrepreneurs.
But where and how SA will find new industrial opportunities remains uncertain.
Gordhan believes that SA can out-compete the developed world at "the upper end of skills" by providing a cheaper alternative.
And he says mining and agriculture can each add 30,000-40,000 new jobs.
At a recent SA/India investment summit he was struck by how potential investors were impressed with the skills available at the top level in SA industry.
"Skills is the key. If the skills curve is ahead of the jobs curve a more positive economic outcome can be anticipated," he says.
Meanwhile, the heady politics of the ANC is threatening to dominate as Ramaphosa’s political battles are about to take centre stage. Zuma’s corruption trial is approaching, and judge Raymond Zondo’s commission of inquiry into state capture will begin later this year.
Back in February, Ramaphosa promised to "attend to the leadership issues at the NPA to ensure that this critical institution is stabilised and able to perform its mandate unhindered".
This was read as a signal that Shaun "The Sheep" Abrahams, who was widely regarded as a stooge who protected Zuma and his cronies, would be fired so the work of rooting out state capture could begin in earnest.
But 100 days later, Abrahams is still in office. On the surface, it would seem that Ramaphosa has failed to act against one of the most dysfunctional officials in the Zuma machinery.
But the reality might be more complex. Abrahams has, finally, reluctantly and after years of prevarication, reinstituted charges against Zuma.
By keeping Abrahams in place to make this decision, Ramaphosa has inoculated himself against claims that the legal pursuit of Zuma is just another leg of the ANC’s factional political battle.
Imagine how different the outcome would have been if he had fired Abrahams and appointed a new prosecutions boss whose first action had been to announce charges against Zuma.
Now that Abrahams has announced the charges, Ramaphosa might replace him with someone who will follow through on them with more enthusiasm.
Ramaphosa has also removed Tom Moyane from the SA Revenue Service after his failure to act against allegations of graft by a senior official. This is set to become a lengthy battle as Moyane adopts the Zuma "Stalingrad" strategy of challenging everything in court and then appealing should rulings not go his way.
In the North West, the Free State and KwaZulu-Natal, Ramaphosa faces internal party turmoil which threatens to bog him down when he should be attending to matters of state.
In the North West, premier Supra Mahumapelo has refused to step down amid a scandal over his abuse of state resources. Widespread protests against Mahumapelo suggest that the province is set for a long winter of discontent.
In KwaZulu-Natal, the ANC leadership is split between those supporting Ramaphosa and those backing Zuma, and there is no sign that an accommodation can be found.
In the Free State, the legitimacy of a provincial election is being challenged.
A senior ANC figure told me that the public was underestimating the "fight back" campaign by Zuma’s acolytes within the public service.
Ramaphosa’s first state of the nation speech was heavily focused on the economy and corruption.
It was clear he was going to play to his core strength — getting antagonists behind closed doors to hammer out a consensus on the way forward.
A jobs summit, an investment conference and negotiations on the mining charter would be rolled out. A youth employment service and a youth working group would be formed as well as a digital industrial revolution commission.
Economic growth and social stability depend on the new president finessing a challenging balancing act
— What it means
The phrases that littered the speech were "work with", "intensify engagements", "engage in meaningful dialogue", "resolve differences", "genuine partnership", "trust" and "shared vision".
After 100 days, the first rays of the "new dawn" can be seen, but conflict, disunity and uncertainty abound.
Gordhan is sanguine. "There are sufficient opportunities and determination to do the right things for the country. It’s about creating hope. You have a person in the president that more people from all kinds of divides can relate to.
"The middle class is more settled now than it has previously been. That’s a significant constituency."
Ramaphosa’s next big decision is about when to hold the next election. It is scheduled for 2019, but he can call it at any time, provided the independent electoral commission is ready.
The prospect of an early election capitalising on the disorganisation of the opposition DA is tantalising. It would also force the ANC to dump factional politics and unite. Ramaphosa’s position would be significantly strengthened in the event of a firm victory.
Says Coleman: "An early election would send a really positive signal. It would signal that Ramaphosa is refreshing his national mandate. It would be celebrated by investors."
Gordhan won’t comment on whether an early election is on the cards. "After the elections, the president will have the opportunity to reconfigure government," he says.
It is clearly a day that cannot come too soon.
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