Saboteurs or scapegoats?

South Africa’s foreign policy is based on principle, not pressure from outside forces, President Cyril Ramaphosa wrote in his newsletter this week.

“South Africa’s national interest will forever remain independent, not beholden to external influence. It will reflect our constitutional values and national priorities. As we continue to engage constructively with the international community, we have been consistent that this should always be on the basis of mutual respect.”

Ramaphosa’s administration is stepping up efforts to reduce reliance on the US market, the country’s third-largest trading partner, as hopes fade for a late deal to ease the 30% tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump.   

Ramaphosa’s special envoy to the US, Mcebisi Jonas, has attributed the hostile US stance to a “dirty tricks” campaign involving “defamatory allegations and treasonous actions of certain South Africans”.

In remarks to the Sunday Times, Jonas said: “The scale of the information war, the nefarious characters involved, their command of resources and their stranglehold over decision-making in South Africa under their cloak of legitimacy make the Bell Pottinger project look like a Sunday school picnic. They have created the perfect storm, and we are caught in the vortex.”

Without identifying anyone, he said: “These nonstate actors have appointed themselves as spokespeople and negotiators on behalf of South Africa to serve certain political and business interests, and are attempting to usurp authority over our foreign policy. They prey on the issues that divide us and our internal weaknesses to render South Africa a pariah state.”

Sounds sinister, but without names, it is hard to assess what influence these “actors” may have, if any. Jonas’s attitude also smacks of scapegoating, particularly in light of the way the ANC-led government has given Washington little reason to love it over the past two decades or so.

The “nonstate actors” referred to by Jonas apparently include “right-wing groups” such as AfriForum and Solidarity and opposition parties, namely the DA and FF Plus.

Now local business leaders, closely tied to the government’s attempts at reforms, are believed to have been added to the list of South Africans using the US to exert pressure on Ramaphosa’s administration by insiders, an allegation business formations deny. 

The government believes that people with South African roots such as London-based André Pienaar, controversial founder of the C5 Capital venture capital group, are playing a role in efforts to exert pressure on government policy.

Pienaar is thought to have backed the visit to Washington in February by a DA delegation led by the party’s then foreign policy spokesperson, Emma Powell. Also on the trip was then deputy minister of trade, industry & competition Andrew Whitfield, who was later fired from the cabinet for his pains.

There is, however, a recognition that the US-South Africa relationship was already taking strain under the Joe Biden administration due to Pretoria’s refusal to take a stance against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

The South African government was far from attentive to its relationship with the US at the time. For instance, our envoy to Washington Nomaindia Mfeketo was on extended sick leave when South Africa was accused of shipping arms to Russia by the then US ambassador in Pretoria, Reuben Brigety.

Jonas’s comments to the Sunday Times came after a US grand jury investigation into MTN’s conduct in relation to its 2005 tie-up with Irancell overshadowed the company’s results announcement last week.

Turkcell, a rival bidder for the Iran deal, alleged in legal filings in the US that MTN had bribed its way into the contract. In 2013, a panel of independent lawyers commissioned by MTN and led by Lord Leonard Hoffmann cleared MTN of wrongdoing.

Complicating matters for MTN, families of US soldiers and civilians who served in Afghanistan and Iraq have accused it of supporting terror groups through its stake in Irancell.

Jonas is chair of the MTN Group and Ramaphosa was chair during the period in which it entered the Iranian market. It seems the US administration has been joining the dots, some of them possibly imaginary.

They don’t feel like the South African government has given them a reason … to stick their necks out

—  Chris Hattingh

While quick to lash out at others, the Ramaphosa administration has little to say about the conduct of those within its own ranks calculated to put American backs up — as epitomised by ANC deputy secretary-general Nomvula Mokonyane and South African National Defence Force chief Gen Rudzani Maphwanya.

Mokonyane recently backed long-standing plans by the City of Joburg to rename Sandton Drive to Leila Khaled Drive, publicly expressing pleasure that the US consulate, which is located on that road, would then have to put the Palestinian activist’s name on its letterhead. (Khaled took part in two aircraft hijackings, in 1969 and 1970.)

Maphwanya visited Tehran in mid-August and publicly assured Iran of South Africa’s support for it, placing further strain on the already fragile relationship between the US and South Africa.

Centre for Risk Analysis executive director Chris Hattingh, who visited the US last week, notes that South Africa is not the only country seeking a trade deal to avert damaging tariffs. 

He says issues such as BEE, farm murders, land expropriation and Julius Malema-style rhetoric are among those on the radar in Washington. This does not necessarily mean BEE, for instance, would have to be scrapped, but the concerns of investors should at least be taken seriously. 

Hattingh believes that Trump’s MAGA base will exploit these issues as the US heads to midterm elections next year.

Yet, he says: “I still think there’s a climate for a deal. Some of the feedback I got was that there are many supporters still of South Africa among Republicans and Democrats [in Congress].”

The problem was these politicians did not see any concessions from Pretoria.

“They don’t feel like the South African government has given them a reason, even in changing rhetoric or in actions on policy, to stick their necks out when they go into a meeting with secretary of state Marco Rubio or with Trump — to enable them to say: ‘Look, South Africa is seizing this moment,’” he says. 

Hattingh adds that key US role-players were “pretty well-informed about the situation in South Africa: the fact that it hasn’t seen real economic growth since 2008, the levels of unemployment, the problems with electricity, logistics and water, and corruption”.

He says it’s natural that South African business leaders visiting the US would talk about growth constraints and the domestic barriers to investment. “The South African government would understandably be frustrated if business went and said that. But … that’s the reality.”

Meanwhile, the government is intent on reducing South Africa’s reliance on the US as an export market.

Speaking in Tokyo last week, Ramaphosa said the government has activated “diversification strategies” by establishing “trade offices” and “assistance desks”, with Japan as a “key pillar” in the strategy.

But Hattingh says the question South Africa should ask is if its investment climate is suitable for any investors, not just those from the US. 

“Regardless of the relationship with the US, if we want to attract investment from the UAE, a more balanced relationship from China, from Saudi Arabia, from Türkiye, then we have to make it easier to do business in South Africa. If we don’t do that, we’re not really going to attract investment from other places either.”

There appears to be no movement on a more favourable trade deal with the US. Hattingh says the US-South Africa Bilateral Relations Review Act, which provides for, among other things, sanctions against some ANC politicians, could have an accelerated trajectory to Trump’s desk for enactment.

“I don’t think South Africa should be surprised if it is processed smoother and faster than going through the normal steps — especially based on what’s happened with Iran,” he says. 

Ramaphosa promised to take Maphwanya to task about his Tehran trip, but defence minister Angie Motshekga has done an about-turn on her own initial criticism of the general.

South Africa remains without an ambassador to the US — incidentally, it does not have one in Beijing or Tokyo, either. It is a mystery why these crucial positions have not been filled for so long. But never fear — Ramaphosa has committed to setting up trade desks.

In the meantime, it would be wise to recall the words of 34th US president Dwight Eisenhower: “The search for the scapegoat is the easiest of all hunting expeditions.”