A year into the GNU, the ANC and the DA remain in their respective corners, unmoved by the stark political reality that South Africa needs both parties at its centre to maintain the stability required to ensure economic growth.
It is really that simple.
Both parties are responsible for the deterioration of the relationship, in the aftermath of the budget fallout and the latest disagreement over the firing of DA trade, industry & competition deputy minister Andrew Whitfield. They are leading the country down a dangerous path.
President Cyril Ramaphosa and the ANC remain under the illusion that doling out portfolios is their sole task in coalition management. The DA believes that posturing and threats will resolve conflict.
ANC insiders say even some senior leaders who were sympathetic to the DA have shifted their stance, after the DA announced it would not participate in the national dialogue called by the president, and that a motion of no confidence in Ramaphosa is possible.
“These people keep on putting their finger right into our nose and eyes, and we keep them on — because if you fire them, they’ve got sympathy,” a senior source in the ANC tells the FM.
After Whitfield’s axing, the DA threatened “grave consequences” if Ramaphosa did not remove ministers implicated in corruption within 48 hours. Of course he did not. One such consequence, announced by DA leader John Steenhuisen during a media briefing on Saturday, was the party’s withdrawal from the national dialogue — though not, as some had expected, from the GNU itself.
However, many in the DA’s federal executive think leaving the GNU is now the right option, while others believe that getting pushed out by the ANC would be a more strategic play. Either way, a rupture now seems inevitable.
The way the DA drew in other ministers through an ultimatum, when its own man had himself violated government protocol, was poor strategy. Steenhuisen had conceded to Ramaphosa that Whitfield expected consequences for failing to get presidential permission to travel to the US in March, an established practice for the executive.
Yet many ANC insiders were surprised when Ramaphosa did not rebuke DA minister of basic education Siviwe Gwarube for failing to attend the signing of the Basic Education Laws Amendment Act (Bela) into law in September last year.
At the time, Ramaphosa responded that Gwarube had committed to executing her responsibilities concerning the legislation, despite disagreeing with it. “To me, the minister has been very clear. She says: ‘President, you are my boss. And I will execute the decisions of the government.’ So, her non-attendance, for me, is an issue, but it’s a minor issue compared to her commitment to implement the law.”
To let Whitfield off the hook similarly, this time over defiance of government protocol, must have seemed untenable to Ramaphosa — though nine months into the GNU, he may have broader motives.
Whitfield, according to Steenhuisen, wrote to Ramaphosa seeking permission for his trip to the US, received no response and then went anyway. On his return he wrote an apology to Ramaphosa.
The ANC’s business-as-usual stance in the GNU may partly explain the DA reverting to its role as an opposition party in many instances.
It must be remembered that the ANC is in succession mode. Its leaders are poised for Ramaphosa’s exit and it would seem their energies are focused there. DA federal council chair Helen Zille says she wrote to secretary-general Fikile Mbalula three times requesting meetings about the workings of the coalition but received no response.
It must be remembered that the ANC is in succession mode … it would seem their energies are focused there
Mbalula, it seems, has his own presidential campaign to run, as has Deputy President Paul Mashatile.
Mashatile was tasked with overseeing the “clearing house”, the GNU’s intended dispute resolution mechanism. A year on, it still lacks agreed terms of reference. Mashatile is on record saying he would retain the GNU, but he has not ruled out doing so without the DA.
The ANC’s internal dynamics are shifting fast. The faction likely to take power seems to be one less inclined to include the DA and more willing to embrace parties such as the EFF — or at least reach an accommodation with them. Ultimately, this will boil down to numbers, and that, in turn, depends on voters in the 2029 elections.
Ramaphosa, for his part, is an aloof leader. He is calculating in his approach to removing ANC ministers over their shenanigans, considering party dynamics as he does so. Insiders say he has periods when his attention is fully on matters of internal governance, but also lengthy periods of total disengagement.
At the briefing, Steenhuisen outlined several instances in which he alleges the president acted in bad faith towards the ANC’s coalition partners, particularly the DA.
Ramaphosa, he says, signed the Expropriation Act and the Bela Act into law without informing his coalition partners. However, the counterpoint is that these bills were ratified by parliament during the sixth administration.
Further to that, Steenhuisen says Ramaphosa did not take seriously the DA’s opposition to the reduced VAT hike of 0.5%. The FM understands that the DA was told to “take it or leave it” in consultations with Ramaphosa. The standoff culminated in the ANC using smaller parties in parliament to push its budget through — a move the DA characterised as irregular.
The budget saga concluded after finance minister Enoch Godongwana conceded in the face of a court challenge brought by the DA. The final budget had the clear input of the DA through its deputy finance minister, Ashor Sarupen, and the process has since proceeded smoothly.
Still, Steenhuisen described a “pattern of disrespect, arrogance and double standards” in the running of the coalition. Ramaphosa has repeatedly promised a “breakaway” meeting with GNU party leaders and one for the cabinet — yet, a year on, nothing has materialised, Steenhuisen said.
Zille cites frustration with the dispute resolution mechanism for the GNU.
“The ANC has ignored every single clause of the GNU statement of intent. We insisted that it be signed by Mbalula before we agreed to vote for the president. But frankly, that signature isn’t worth the paper it’s written on.
“Clause 18 says that all decisions in the GNU will be taken by consensus, and if you can’t get consensus, it will be by sufficient consensus. Under clause 19, there is a clear definition of what sufficient consensus entails. There is supposed to be a mechanism to apply sufficient consensus. It has never been implemented.
“Instead, the ANC in bad faith tried to put together a clearing house mechanism, which turned out to be nothing more than an attempt to get around the sufficient consensus clause and was a complete farce,” she says.
In effect, after a year, the GNU has no process to manage dynamics between parties, particularly the two largest, which together represent more than 60% of the South African electorate.
The ANC’s national executive committee meets later this month. That should indicate the party’s stance on the DA’s continued participation in the GNU.
Right now, the ANC appears to be waiting for the DA to jump, and arguably provoking it to do so, while the DA is biding its time, waiting to be pushed.
Whoever blinks first will plunge the country into uncharted territory, undermining the fragile confidence built so far and undoing hard-won gains.
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