After nearly a decade of stagnation, the Joburg housing market is coming out of the doldrums. Latest industry data points to a long-awaited, albeit tentative, uplift in prices and sales volumes.
It’s true that housing activity has softened across South Africa since late 2021 due to higher-for-longer interest rates, with the Western Cape the only exception.
But Joburg was particularly hard hit by the post-pandemic semigration wave to the Western Cape, on the back of the widespread adoption of remote working. Homebuyer sentiment in Joburg was further hammered by political instability, poor infrastructure upkeep and widespread electricity and water supply issues.
Whether there has been any improvement in municipal service delivery since mayor Dada Morero was elected in August is debatable, but industry players say value chasers are starting to return to the city.
A case in point is Jonathan Kohler, founder and CEO of Landsdowne Property Group, one of the country’s largest residential real estate managers. After renting in Joburg for 20 years, he recently bought a home to live in. His move was prompted by the deep discount on offer, with Joburg house prices at levels last seen in 2010. Kohler says it’s the sort of value that’s hard to ignore.
But the window of opportunity to secure property at bargain-basement prices won’t stay open indefinitely. “So now is the time to buy in Joburg,’’ he says.
Kohler adds that freehold homes in established suburbs offer particularly good value for those with a longer-term horizon. “Many buyers are shifting to secure estates, which opens opportunities in suburbs that are still central but less competitive.”
Seeff Property Group chair Samuel Seeff says housing activity is picking up steam not only in Joburg but also in Tshwane and Ekurhuleni.
That view is supported by home loan data from BetterBond. The mortgage originator has reported a 9.3% year-on-year increase in applications across South Africa in the first quarter, with Gauteng being the busiest of all the provinces. In fact, Gauteng accounted for 48% of all home loans granted by BetterBond.
Seeff believes a key driver of Gauteng’s property recovery is that buyers are now getting more bang for their buck in the province than anywhere else.
Property affordability and economic opportunity are the primary reasons for those returning to the Gauteng metros
— Samuel Seeff
That’s been aided by the 75 basis point rate cuts since September. In addition, he says the province remains the country’s employment hub and typically offers higher earnings potential than other regions. “Property affordability and economic opportunity are the primary reasons for those returning to the Gauteng metros.”
Seeff notes that the average house price in Joburg has remained static at around R1.3m since 2019. House prices in Cape Town have risen by at least 35% over the same time, bringing the average price to R1.9m.
The price gap is more pronounced at the higher end of the market. He says in Sandton and other upscale northern suburbs of Joburg and in Pretoria East, the average price for a luxury home above R3m now sits at R4.4m.
In stark contrast, Cape Town buyers are forking out nearly 75% more for homes of similar quality, at an average R7.6m. Seeff adds you’re also getting a lot more square meterage in Gauteng.
Data from Pam Golding Property Group confirms that the value proposition offered by Joburg’s upmarket suburbs hasn’t gone unnoticed by savvy would-be buyers. Bryanston was the second-most searched area nationally after Cape Town on the group’s website during the first quarter of 2025 — with the suburb attracting a similar number of searches to both Sea Point and Constantia.
CEO Andrew Golding says that’s a marked improvement from the first quarter of 2024, when Bryanston was in fifth position. “While Cape Town retains top spot on the Pam Golding Properties website, Gauteng locations account for an increasing number of web searches.’’
Golding notes that Bryanston remains a sought-after address because of its central locality, top government and private schools, and proximity to the Sandton CBD. The suburb also has a wide range of properties to choose from. Sectional-title townhouses are typically priced from R900,000 to R8m; full-title properties (standalone homes and those in gated enclaves) can range from R3m up to R40m.
Industry players say though Joburg still has an oversupply of properties for sale, prices have already started to firm. That’s borne out by Lighthouse data, which shows that Joburg house prices increased by 1.2% in March.
Granted, that’s hardly something to write home about, but it’s the first time in four years that Joburg is back in growth territory. Jozi has now overtaken eThekwini in the capital growth stakes (see graph).
House prices in KwaZulu-Natal’s capital city had hardly moved in the past three years but managed to edge up slightly to 1.1% in March. The picture looks decidedly different for Cape Town, where house price growth has accelerated to a seven-year high of 5.7% in March.
Cape Town’s winning streak has been supported by ongoing semigration, no doubt fuelled by perceptions that the metro, under its DA-led government, is better run than others. There’s also been a surge in buy-to-let investment purchases and a return of international buyers.
Despite anecdotal evidence suggesting that semigration to the Cape is slowing as more buyers are priced out of the market, research from Rainmaker Marketing points to the contrary.
One in four — 27% — of people who sold a house in South Africa last year subsequently bought a new property in a different province. That’s up from 16% in 2019, according to the Rainmaker report (based on Lightstone data).
The Western Cape is still receiving the lion’s share of semigrants: 5,970 buyers from other provinces settled there last year, nearly 80% more than Gauteng’s 3,360 and more than four times KwaZulu-Natal’s 1,300.
Cape Town has seen a huge increase in buy-to-let purchases
— Rhys Dyer
Home loan approval figures from mortgage originator ooba confirm there’s been a huge increase in property investment buying in the Cape since mid-2022. Group CEO Rhys Dyer says buy-to-let purchases in the Western Cape accounted for 32% of all mortgage applications processed nationally by ooba in the first quarter, up from 30% a year ago and more than five times the historic 6% average seen in the decade to mid-2022.
He says the trend reflects growing buyer confidence and renewed momentum in the Western Cape market. The province, Cape Town in particular, has also been the beneficiary of rising foreign interest.
According to sales data from Seeff and PropStats, the number of R20m homes sold in Cape Town surged to a record high of 59, worth a total of R1.77bn in the first quarter. That’s more than double the 28 sales worth R784m concluded a year earlier, and ahead of the previous record of 49 sales worth R1.47bn in the second quarter of last year.
Ross Levin, licensee for Seeff’s Atlantic seaboard operation, says Cape Town is now firmly back on the global tourist map, with overseas arrivals to the city reaching record levels last year.
That’s had a positive impact on housing demand, leading to a steady increase in sales to international buyers. Levin says foreign interest, led by the UK and Germany, is predominantly focused on the Atlantic seaboard and southern suburbs.
He adds that there are now at least eight suburbs in Cape Town which have an average price of more than R20m: Clifton (R42m), Bishopscourt (R24.6m), Camps Bay (R24.1m), Llandudno (R23m), V&A Waterfront (R21.6m), Bantry Bay (R21.5m), Higgovale (R21.5m), and Constantia (R21m). Fresnaye and Oranjezicht follow closely, at average sales prices of R17.4m and R16.5m respectively, in the first quarter.
Levin says despite the strong rise in luxury prices in the past five years, it’s not surprising that Cape Town is reappearing on wealthy overseas property buyers’ radar, given how much value the city still offers in global terms.
UK-based Knight Frank’s The Wealth Report 2025 confirms that Cape Town is still dirt cheap compared to other international capitals. The report compares how much high-end apartment space $1m will buy in 20 prime property hotspots across the world (see table).
It comes to 181m² in Cape Town, nearly 10 times Monaco’s 19m², the world’s most expensive real estate destination, and double Lisbon's 92m². The latter is one of Western Europe's most affordable housing markets.
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