The Afrikaner “refugees” who touched down in the US this week, and others possibly to come, will be part of President Donald Trump’s negotiating arsenal as he and President Cyril Ramaphosa meet in person for the first time since Trump’s re-election.
Ramaphosa is set to travel to Washington next week for the first face-to-face meeting between the presidents since relations between the two countries dipped to a new low with the expulsion in March of South Africa’s ambassador, Ebrahim Rasool.
On Monday, as the South Africans landed in the US, Trump responded at a media briefing to questions about his reasons for blocking refugees from war-torn countries, yet accepting white Afrikaners from South Africa.
“Because they are being killed and we don’t want to see people being killed. Now South African leadership are coming to see me some time next week, and we are supposed to have a G20 meeting there or something,” he said.
“I don’t know how we can go unless that situation is taken care of, but it’s a genocide that’s taking place that you people don’t want to write about. But it’s a terrible thing that’s taking place and farmers are being killed. They happen to be white. But whether they are white or black makes no difference to me, but white farmers are being brutally killed and their land is being confiscated and the newspapers and the media don’t even talk about it.”
International relations minister Ronald Lamola told journalists that there is no persecution of whites or Afrikaners in South Africa, proven by various reports including by the police. “The crime in South Africa affects everyone irrespective of race and gender,” he said.
“There is no data at all that there is persecution of whites or Afrikaners in particular. Farm dwellers are also affected by crime, white farmers do get affected by crime, just like any other South African.”
According to senior government sources, there were no farmers in the group that landed in the US on Monday. And Theo de Jager, chair of the Southern African Agri Initiative (Saai), tells the FM that while his organisation has been working closely with the US embassy and those applying for refugee status, he does not know who the first group were or whether they included any farmers.
Trump has already stated that his attendance at the G20 summit in November depends on this government ‘addressing’ the alleged issue
De Jager says that so far only two farmers have applied for refugee status with Saai’s help. The rest were farm managers or employees such as silo managers. “But none of those on our list is included in this first group. We find it a bit strange … because we have been involved right from the beginning since Trump signed those executive orders.”
De Jager says the genocide narrative is “completely false” and he does not know where it comes from. “That we have a problem with safety on farms, that is so. We are losing many farmers, moving away from their farms because of safety concerns. But it is not a genocide — my organisation and AfriForum have been clear on that.”
It will be difficult for Ramaphosa to counter Trump’s self-created fantasy of a genocide in South Africa, but it is clear that the US president will double down on it. He has already stated that his attendance at the G20 summit in November, to be hosted by South Africa, depends on this government “addressing” the alleged issue.
Chris Hattingh, executive director of the Centre for Risk Analysis, also points out that the US has now extended the “refugee” offer to include other “racial minorities” who claim to be persecuted in South Africa.
A statement on the US embassy website on Monday refers to Afrikaners and for the first time includes “racial minorities” more broadly, apparently aimed at the white population in general. “It is a broadening of the rhetoric; if you look at previous communications, they were just limited to Afrikaners,” says Hattingh.
He says Trump’s broadside at South Africa is symbolic of his broader attack on multilateral institutions. “South Africa places so much stock in multilateral institutions such as the UN and the World Trade Organisation. It’s part of the attack by his administration on those. He is even subverting the widely used and recognised definition of a refugee.”
Hattingh emphasises that it would be a significant blow to South Africa should Trump decide not to attend the G20 summit.
The FM understands that, aside from G20 participation, the South African government has also been seized with formulating a “substantial” trade deal for the US, to accommodate Trump’s transactional approach to international relations. This is important given that the African Growth & Opportunity Act, under which South Africa enjoys substantial trade concessions, is set to lapse on September 30.
To take on Trump, Ramaphosa will have to use all the negotiating experience in his arsenal — from his unionist days, then negotiating the transition to democracy, followed by the national constitution and his work on brokering peace in Northern Ireland. Those were all thorny projects with high stakes, but it has to be asked if Ramaphosa has ever had a more unpredictable person across the table.
The battle is just beginning and its outcome cannot be predicted.
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