US vs South Africa: can the relationship be saved?

There are no absolutes in international diplomacy, but ties between South Africa and the US have reached a turning point and are being reset with or without South Africa’s participation. 

The ANC’s international gloss has dissipated in the US, South Africa’s second-largest trading partner, and right now it seems that little can be done to salvage the once solid relationship.

The expulsion of ambassador Ebrahim Rasool on Saturday is simply the latest in a string of signals from the US that relations between the two countries have changed. Putting this down to the excesses of the Trump administration would be short-sighted. 

Before Rasool’s expulsion, the FM had confirmed that he was struggling to get access to influential circles in the US anyway, making his task of opening doors to a high-level delegation from South Africa extremely difficult. “Well, he was frozen out, he was not making progress anyway. His comments were unfortunate, but he was facing a struggle making inroads,” a senior South African government source tells the FM. 

However, President Cyril Ramaphosa, talking to journalists this week, said South Africa was not being “ignored” by the US and Rasool had made “significant progress” in diplomatic circles.

“We are engaging with them and … a great deal of progress has been made by our ambassador in straightening out the path to ensure that there is meaningful engagement at the diplomatic level.”

Ramaphosa dismissed Rasool’s removal as a “hiccup” and doubled down, saying South Africa could not be ignored by the US as the countries were important to each other.

“We will engage with the US in a formal way,” he said. “We will do so with deep respect for them and for President Trump as well. We will deal with the US as an important global player, as we are also an important player. So I would like the people of South Africa not to have sleepless nights. We are working on ensuring this relationship is put on a good footing.”

US secretary of state Marco Rubio’s expulsion of Rasool followed comments he made during a webinar organised by the Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection. Rubio took offence to Rasool’s description of the Trump administration as leading a global supremacist movement.

“What Donald Trump is launching is an assault on incumbency, those who are in power, by mobilising a supremacism against the incumbency, at home, and … abroad as well,” Rasool said during the webinar. “I think that there is also an export of the revolution … And very clearly, it’s to project white victimhood as a dog whistle that there is a global protective movement that is beginning to envelop embattled white communities or apparently embattled white communities. It may not be true, it may not make sense, but that is not the dog whistle that is being heard in a global white base.”

Rasool’s expulsion is only the latest example of the shift in South Africa/US relations. The first emerged under the previous administration led by president Joe Biden. There was the furore around allegations by then US ambassador Reuben Brigety that South Africa had sold arms to Russia, and a bipartisan attempt for congress to review the bilateral relationship between the two countries. South Africa’s favourable trade deal with the US under the African Growth & Opportunity Act (Agoa) is set to come under scrutiny this year — and there is already a strong view that the country’s participation will be withdrawn.

“I think the ANC understands there’s a problem, but they have been lulled by decades of American acceptance of their bad behaviour into believing that that pattern is going to continue,

—  Joshua Meservey

Joshua Meservey, a senior researcher at conservative think-tank the Hudson Institute, tells the FM: “I think the ANC understands there’s a problem, but they have been lulled by decades of American acceptance of their bad behaviour into believing that that pattern is going to continue, that they can do a few cosmetic things, maybe send a few delegations, talk about Nelson Mandela, maybe try to stir up a little of the guilt around apartheid.

“That’s traditionally been their approach and that’s usually worked. But I think people have moved on now from this idea of the ANC as a principled fighter against injustice and equality, because their record is so bad, domestically and internationally.

“I think people are more and more aware of that. So the ANC is not going to be able to just simply send a few delegations, say, ‘Oh, gosh, we really want a good relationship’, and then continue doing what they’re doing.”

Meservey is referring to South Africa’s record of voting at the UN — he claims the country abstains or votes against resolutions critical of, for instance, North Korea or Iran.

The differences between the US and South Africa on international matters has historically been vast — for instance, Pretoria did not support the US invasion of Iraq. The ANC’s stance on Palestine is also historic, as are its ties to Russia. The difference now is that the US is asserting its economic might in a shifting global order, in which China has become a considerable economic and political force. 

Meservey also cites Ramaphosa’s doubling down on South Africa’s stance on Israel; a meeting between ANC deputy secretary-general Nomvula Mokonyane and the Iranian ambassador at Luthuli House; and the move to rename Sandton Drive, where the US consulate is, after Palestinian militant Leila Khaled.

“So if you’re the US observing this, it’s very hard for you to believe that the ANC is being honest that it wants to repair the relationship. When the ANC says, ‘We want to repair the relationship’, and then it changes none of its behaviour — the way I interpret that is, ‘We want to continue fooling you that we’re your friends, and we’re here to placate you, say a few nice things, have a nice meeting, in the hopes that you’ll continue to ignore the fact that we oppose you’.

“The ANC opposes the US — it’s pretty clear. It has the economic relationship that it wants to maintain, but as an organisation, it’s ideologically opposed to the US.”

Meservey, however, does not believe that South Africa as a whole should be punished for the ANC’s perceived duplicity. He has argued in favour of sanctions targeted at specific ANC leaders instead of punitive action against South Africa as a whole. 

A senior South African government source tells the FM that the US also believes South Africa is “undercutting” the US — the country is the US’s largest trading partner on the continent but South Africa’s largest trading partner is China. 

The thinking among conservatives in the US leaves South Africa in a bind over its response. It could wait out Trump’s four-year term, but Meservey points out that could be succeeded by two terms for Trump’s vice-president, JD Vance.

For now, South Africa’s response is being carefully considered by Ramaphosa’s administration. Answering questions in parliament, Ramaphosa said South Africa would meet the new US administration, in effect, once it has crafted a deal that Trump cannot refuse. 

“The counsel that we got, which is very useful counsel from a number of quarters, is the US is now in a milieu of being very transactional. They would like to see what transaction can be crafted with any country that they interact with,” he said. 

“That process is under way through our various departments, and, in time, I will be able to send the envoys that should go, and they will be going under the rubric of advancing our foreign policy.”

For now, the international relations department is considering a candidate to replace Rasool, and Ramaphosa’s administration is putting together a government-wide strategy to respond to worst-case scenarios, such as forging alternative trade deals to replace Agoa and seeking alternative markets for South African exports. This is before the two countries even begin formal talks. 

The situation appears bleak. Ramaphosa may find that whatever charm he retains in American eyes may not be enough when it comes to the hard realities of economic diplomacy.