Ebrahim Rasool is heading back to the US for a second term as South Africa’s ambassador. This time, of course, he is representing not only the ANC but the government of national unity (GNU) — and he is mindful that the incoming second administration of Donald Trump and a Republican Congress will need a careful balancing act of policy posturing and realism.
Rasool’s experience and understanding of the US political landscape will be crucial in navigating the challenges of a likely protectionist presidency. He built a network of Washington insiders during his last tenure, which should give him a head start in advancing South Africa’s interests.
The 62-year-old veteran anti-apartheid activist is a former premier of the Western Cape and a former adviser in the presidency. He says he was looking forward to retirement, spending time with his family and building his charitable foundation. Rasool is also chair of the Development Bank of Southern Africa, a job he says he has relished.
“I had declined a seat in parliament because I was really enjoying my work at the development bank, but I think that this is a call to duty rather than anything else. And given my experience in the US, I need to play my part in rescuing our relationship and all the interests that are tied up with that post.”
Rasool tells the FM he will head to Washington in early December to present his credentials and assess whether the South African diplomatic mission in the US is fit for purpose.
Former DA leader Tony Leon, who served a term as ambassador to Argentina, tells the FM that he wishes Rasool all the best, but it will be tough to sell South Africa’s foreign policy to a hawkish Trump government, even though Rasool knows his way around Capitol Hill.
“There is nothing GNU about South Africa’s foreign policy,” says Leon. “It’s driven by the ANC, so even if he says the right things, he has several structural hurdles to overcome.” South Africa’s association with Russia and China through Brics is a reality that diplomatic skills cannot obscure. “Whatever South Africa is selling won’t easily be bought by the Trump White House, and how will Rasool navigate around this? I wish him well,” says Leon.
Rasool was ambassador to the US between 2010 and 2016, when Democrat Barack Obama was president — a very different Washington. He admits there is much at stake this time around, and says there’s been a lot of misunderstanding between the two countries. “The knock-on effect of such misunderstandings is that members of the two houses of Congress can come together to isolate South Africa from trade and investment deals. I think that requires a fairly serious intervention.”
One such deal is the African Growth & Opportunity Act (Agoa), which was introduced in 2000. The agreement allows 1,600 products to be imported into the US without any duties, benefiting more than 30 African states. South Africa is a major beneficiary, but the deal comes up for renewal in 2025 and there’s concern we might lose out. Rasool says it will be crucial to find a solution that benefits all parties involved.
Oscar van Heerden, international relations scholar and fellow at the University of Johannesburg, tells the FM that the US under Trump is not going to take kindly to the country’s official stance of nonalignment, especially as many see our policy statements as aligned against US interests.
Given my experience in the US, I need to play my part in rescuing our relationship and all the interests that are tied up with that post
— Ebrahim Rasool
“It’s going to be a difficult environment and a hostile US,” says Van Heerden. “They want countries in the south to come out clearly where they stand in terms of geopolitical issues, from China to Iran. The US has taken issue with our proximity to China and Russia.”
Rasool says: “South Africa has shown that it remains a moral force in the way in which the ANC accepted the election results, then putting together a GNU. And I think that has given us a major fighting chance with the US.”
According to South African trade statistics, bilateral trade increased to $21.4bn in 2021, from $15.9bn in 2020 and $13.3bn in 2019. US imports from South Africa rose to $15.9bn in 2021.
However, China is South Africa’s largest trading partner, while South Africa is China’s No 1 partner in Africa. Total bilateral trade with China grew from R614bn in 2022 to R692bn in 2023, according to the presidency. Rasool says this issue will have to be explained to the new Trump administration, which wants to impose tariffs of up to 60% on imports from China.
Rasool says maintaining strong trade relationships with both the US and China is vital for South Africa’s economy. “The US can be a partner of choice, but it can’t be an exclusive partner, because no country puts all its eggs in one basket. The US doesn’t do that, we can’t do that.”
Leon says Rasool will have to work hard to increase trade with the US. “US hostility to China and Iran is the biggest issue for the new Trump administration, and we are on the wrong side of both. And we are also on the wrong side of a hefty trade surplus with the US, due to Agoa.”
Rasool says the US would want something more in two-way trade, given the trade imbalance. He makes the case that trading with South Africa is also about trading with the rest of Africa.
“We ought to compete more effectively, rather than rely only on the preferentiality. We are beginning to understand the nature of the relationship and the nature of Agoa. I also think we are going to have to integrate a lot more with Africa, because it must become evident that when we send a BMW to the US, we send it with tyres that are made from rubber from the Democratic Republic of Congo and seats that are made from leather from Botswana. And we’ve got to make the case together with Africa that we are one integrated market, and that you can’t just cut one country out of that market.”
Van Heerden says Rasool will have to use all his diplomatic skills to convince the Trump administration that South Africa is a reliable partner in Africa. “I will be so bold to predict that when Trump comes to the G20 conference next year in Joburg, he will give President Cyril Ramaphosa an ultimatum. It will further complicate the role of Rasool as ambassador in managing this.”
Rasool says he’s been doing a lot of reading to understand what makes Trump tick. He suspects South Africa’s relationship with the US is going to be much more transactional.
“He’s not ideological in the sense that he has a left or right view of the world. He doesn’t even have a right-wrong view of the world. What interests him is what works, what is practical, what is beneficial and what is in his interest.” Rasool believes that understanding Trump’s pragmatic approach will be crucial in navigating South Africa’s relationship with the US.
“A lot of people think that he may well put in place the idea that he’s going to punish us for our positions on this and our positions on that. I think the transactional debate is about what is good for America. And if we can speak into that, then I think we can transcend a lot of the geopolitics and the ideology.”
Rasool says one of the transactional issues he is ready to deal with is US support for treating South Africa’s HIV pandemic through the US President’s Emergency Plan for Aids Relief (Pepfar). According to the US embassy in South Africa, the US has invested more than $8bn in South Africa and $85bn towards the global Aids response through Pepfar since 2003.
The FM understands from NGOs working in the area that they are concerned that if Trump stops Pepfar, the country’s HIV/Aids programme will collapse.
Rasool says it won’t, but he is preparing for some changes. He says South Africa may need to adapt to a new reality of limited financial support.
Rasool says he is ready for this next chapter, and to step out of his comfort zone. “There are so many things at stake. I think I’ve been prepared by whatever I’ve been doing in my lifetime, such as sitting in a provincial coalition government from 1994 with the last apartheid police minister, Hernus Kriel, as the premier and being his MEC for health. And the kind of dialogues we had in the interfaith movement with Christians, evangelicals and Jews.”
Van Heerden says Rasool “understands the complexities and the diplomatic game. He also knows how to approach Middle Eastern politics and the Iran/Israel issue. He has an enormous network in Washington and the US, and that will equip him well to deal with the Trump administration.”
The key unknown, however, is whether Rasool’s government is prepared to moderate a policy position that it claims is nonaligned but in practice is often seen as hostile to US interests.
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