The role of deputy president is not a glamorous one, especially in the ANC. If you hold that position you have no reliable power base and serve at the pleasure of the president, which means that he can fire you. Former president Thabo Mbeki did just that to Jacob Zuma in 2005 after a corruption scandal.
Cyril Ramaphosa was deputy president from 2012 under Zuma and during his tenure he was passive and lacklustre, to say the least. And the country barely remembers former deputy president David Mabuza (2018-2023), who spent considerable time in Russia due to ill health.
The person in the No 2 position has to tread carefully. The deputy has to be visibly loyal to the president, serving as his troubleshooter or ambassador as the need arises. However, there is also a need to keep an eye on likely future power relations, maintain cordial relations with government entities and have a strong presence in ANC structures and branches.
With ANC electoral support now at just over 40%, the ascendancy of the deputy to the presidency is by no means assured. The power dynamics in the party have changed. When the party enjoyed a comfortable majority, there were more opportunities for patronage and building career paths. Now the pressure is on to rebuild electoral support while navigating the unfamiliar risks inherent in participation in the government of national unity (GNU). Part of the game will be to succeed in backing future winners.
And this is the dilemma for Paul Mashatile, who has been deputy president of the ANC since 2022 and of the country since 2023. He is also the leader of business and government in parliament. He has not rocked the boat and has kept a low profile, expressing no major policy positions, and has not been proactive on particular issues. It will be interesting to see how long he can sustain being Mr Nice Guy and all things to everyone.
Political analyst Levy Ndou tells the FM that Mashatile has to ensure he has the support of ANC branches, but must also engage with government departments in his role as leader of business and government. Some departments are now headed by DA ministers.
He must navigate the delicate balance between party loyalty and effective governance to maintain his position and influence in the ANC. “Mashatile has an ambition to become the president of the ANC and the country if the ANC performs well. He has a very tricky responsibility that can either work in his favour or not,” says Ndou.
Mashatile is known as a backroom operator in the ANC and knows how to work with party structures. In 2017 he was elected treasurer-general. Later, following the death of Jessie Duarte, he was acting deputy secretary-general, and after the suspension of Ace Magashule he became acting secretary-general. He held this dual responsibility until his election as deputy president of the ANC in December 2022.
He was minister of arts & culture between 2010 and 2014 and the premier of Gauteng from 2008 to 2009.
There is no doubt that his experience in various leadership roles has solidified his reputation as a skilled political operator, and he seems able to navigate treacherous party dynamics.
He wants to be the next president and has expressed his willingness to serve if called upon to do so by party members. He told the Sunday Times that though the succession leadership issue “has yet to be opened, ANC leaders should avail themselves when branches nominate them. I’m available if branches want me.”
This is usually how ANC leaders start succession debates in the party. They always emphasise the importance of respecting the internal processes of the ANC and of allowing member branches to have their say in the nomination process.
However, Ramaphosa, addressing the national executive committee (NEC) in October, said that talk now about leadership contests is a distraction. “There will be time for disciplined discussion and engagement about leadership succession. Now is not that time. Our next national conference is in 2027 and we are only in 2024. Right now the ANC must focus on rebuilding the organisation and preparing for the local government elections in 2026.”
Mashatile’s close ties to the “Alex Mafia” — an informal network of ANC comrades from Joburg’s Alexandra township in the 1980s — could block his path. There have been rumours that this allegedly corrupt network has obtained contracts worth millions.
Given the ongoing corruption scandals involving many in the ANC, the apparent affiliation with the “Alex Mafia” could harm Mashatile’s credibility, especially if this issue is leveraged by his political opponents. The ANC is under pressure to be seen to deal with corruption and to regain public trust ahead of the local government elections in 2026 and the next national elections in 2029.
In February, the DA laid criminal charges against Mashatile. DA leader John Steenhuisen said at the time that the allegations of corruption levelled against him spanned almost two decades and were part of an “intricate web of nepotism and family patronage” of which Mashatile was allegedly the ultimate beneficiary. However, that was before the formation of the GNU.
The DA noted the purchase of a Constantia mansion by Mashatile’s son-in-law, Nceba Nonkwelo, at a cost of R28.9m to his company — which allegedly still owes the Gauteng department of human settlements R7m for a failed Alexandra housing project.
Given the ongoing corruption scandals involving many in the ANC, Mashatile’s apparent affiliation with the ‘Alex Mafia’ could harm his credibility
The DA also sent a formal complaint to parliament’s joint committee on ethics and members’ interests, saying that Mashatile had broken the members’ code of conduct by failing to “disclose registrable interests” or by giving the registrar wrong or misleading information. The DA has called for an investigation into Mashatile’s potential conflicts of interest and failure to disclose his son-in-law’s financial dealings.
He has appeared before the ANC integrity commission, led by former director-general in the presidency Frank Chikane, over corruption allegations and claims that he benefited from government tenders. The commission hears political and ethical complaints against ANC members and acts as an advisory body to the NEC.
Ndou says these allegations will influence Mashatile’s ambitions of becoming the head of state. “Mashatile has been implicated in some form of wrongdoing, and these issues have not been ventilated in the courts yet. But as the party moves to the leadership race, it has an effect on him and his ambitions to become president.” Ndou adds that ANC succession races can become ugly. “Whatever moves he makes must be done very carefully.”
Since taking office in 2023, it’s been difficult to assess Mashatile’s contribution to broader policy issues. It could be that he has skills in negotiating compromises. He is now in charge of the GNU’s new “clearing house”. The platform was established by Ramaphosa to resolve policy disagreements and disputes in the 10-member GNU. The first order of business in its second meeting in October was to discuss its terms of reference and aspects of the Basic Education Laws Amendment Act, on which the DA and the ANC have disagreed.
During the deputy president’s quarterly Q&A session, MPs have the chance to interrogate key economic and social issues. The end of the October session focused on water and infrastructure challenges, especially in Gauteng. Mashatile promised that enforcement and accountability within municipalities will be strengthened.
During the three-hour session, held in a makeshift tent inside a parking lot outside parliament, Mashatile was vague on details, rather reminding MPs of the policies in place. He stuck to the script rather than referring the issue to co-operative governance minister Velenkosini Hlabisa and water & sanitation minister Pemmy Majodina.
Mashatile didn’t say anything new; he referenced Operation Vulindlela a number of times. This is a joint initiative of the presidency and the National Treasury to accelerate the implementation of structural reforms and to support economic recovery in the electricity, water, transport and digital communications sectors. It seems that Operation Vulindlela now has to deal with everything, and one wonders what cabinet ministers are actually doing.
Build One South Africa leader Mmusi Maimane says Mashatile has had the opportunity to drive legislative changes, but he’s been disappointing so far. “Municipalities are the biggest risk to our fiscal sustainability. It seems as if, because of the lack of adjudication within the GNU, the peace-making process trumps brave policy decisions and choices.”
If Mashatile is serious about occupying the No 1 position, he will have to convince branches that he is the man to lead the party from 2027 into the tough 2029 election.
There will come a point when he will have to show he can get things done and influence events, and can get off the fence when it comes to internal ANC factions.
Otherwise it will be all too easy for ambitious opponents to point, for instance, to the corruption allegations as a disqualification.
Would you like to comment on this article?
Sign up (it's quick and free) or sign in now.
Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.