The ANC national executive committee (NEC) is considering stabilising coalitions at local government level with the government of national unity (GNU) model across the country.
A crucial meeting of the NEC last week discussed ways to stabilise and strengthen governments at local level; the decision was taken to the party’s national officials on Monday for final approval. It would mean renegotiating local coalitions based on a minimum programme or “statement of intent” to address the problems unique to each individual municipality.
The ANC faced a brutal election this year in which its national support dropped by 17 percentage points, forcing it to enter a coalition with 10 other parties, including the erstwhile official opposition, the DA.
The GNU coalition arrangement that came out of the national election was the ANC’s “best tactical intervention”, the NEC agreed last week, and replicating similar arrangements at local level would mean shifting the thinking about coalitions among opposition parties as well as its own deployees.
The ANC won’t exclude any party in its local government talks and will work with those who agree. Already it is in talks with parties in the Western Cape, such as the Freedom Front Plus, over shifting power dynamics in the province’s councils. And it plans to hold discussions with parties across the nine provinces over the fate of hung councils.
But it is Joburg that is set to be the test case for the model. The beleaguered metro has been beset with political instability, with a revolving door of mayors (eight since 2021, at the time or writing). At the same time, there’s been a marked decline in the provision of basic services and a visible crumbling of essential infrastructure.
The first iteration of the ANC’s shift in thinking about coalitions in municipalities is set to be finalised in the city this week, when the party’s Dada Morero will replace Al Jama-ah’s bootless Kabelo Gwamanda, who resigned on Tuesday morning.
Gwamanda was installed as mayor after the ANC and the EFF struck a deal with a handful of small parties to take control of Joburg. The EFF refused to vote for an ANC mayor and successive mayors were drawn from Al Jama-ah. The party’s first offering for a mayor was the scandal-prone Thapelo Amad, who was removed last year on the eve of a motion of no confidence against him.
Parties want to bargain in exchange for administrative positions or tenders. People want to cut deals in exchange for key positions in municipal entities. That is wrong
While coalitions at local level have been common in South Africa since 2000, the 2021 local government election ushered in a record number of hung councils. There were just 29 in 2000, but this increased to 37 in 2016 and 80 in 2021, according to the framework for hung councils that the ANC NEC adopted last year.
Stabilising these councils will be a key priority for the ANC and last week’s meeting agreed that the process should be finalised in the next two months, with a longer-term programme to boost delivery at local government level. The interventions are expected to be crucial to improve the ANC’s electoral fortunes going into the 2026 local polls.
An NEC source tells the FM that the initiative would see the same principles that went into setting up the GNU nationally shape local government coalitions. A key feature of this is, controversially, that the largest party should have first preference in setting up the government.
“The thinking is to engage all parties; the set-up in each municipality is different so you would have different parties playing different roles. But the idea is to have them based on a minimum programme, similar to the statement of intent [of the GNU],” the source says.
This statement of intent or minimum programme should be informed by the problems specific to that municipality, instead of bargaining over specific positions.
The ANC has found that the vast majority of hung councils are unstable and that coalitions are based on “flawed agreements”. Often smaller parties negotiate to prop up larger parties but have unreasonable and in some cases unethical demands.
“Many of those coalitions are still a problem. Parties want to bargain in exchange for administrative positions or tenders. People want to cut deals in exchange for key positions in municipal entities. That is wrong,” an insider tells the FM.
The initiative will be driven by the ANC’s coalition task team, headed by its political education chief David Makhura and its local government intervention task team, led by Parks Tau.
Approached for comment by the FM, Makhura confirms that the two teams have been directed to “act with speed” to stabilise the messy coalitions in place across the country, “under the guidance of the ANC’s national officials”.
“We have been asked to ensure that measures are taken urgently. Further details will be communicated by the secretary-general,” he says. The specifics of the local coalition arrangements will be decided on a case-by-case basis and would not exclude any party, he tells the FM.
They can have another 30 years and they won’t be able to fix [things]. The problems are so immense and two years is a very short time
— Susan Booysen
Independent political analyst Prof Susan Booysen, who has been looking closely at municipal coalitions, is sceptical about attempts to replicate the GNU model at local level, saying the idea is “totally intriguing”, but as far as she’s concerned simply a new way of communicating about what is already in place in hung councils.
Interestingly, Booysen says, when the Freedom Front Plus pulled out of the Oudtshoorn coalition with the DA in the Western Cape, it too called for a GNU model there. Then there’s Gauteng, where the “unity government” terminology is fruitlessly brandished; in effect, a minority government is dubbed a “government of provincial unity”.
Booysen cautions that the ANC is being disingenuous in its rhetoric about stable government, as her work on coalitions has shown that it is in fact the ANC that has destabilised hung councils “left, right and centre”.
“This is true in at least half the cases. The ANC itself has a very destabilising effect on councils.”
The danger is also that the deep problems in different municipalities make them unattractive to parties that could form coalitions to run them.
“An example here is Maluti-a-Phofung in the Free State ... it seems even opposition parties and the province are hesitant to take over because of the magnitude of the problems there,” says Booysen.
She is doubtful that any real changes — at least changes big enough to shift the electoral needle — are possible before the next local government election.
“I think [that even if] they can have another 30 years they won’t be able to fix [things]. The problems are so immense, and two years is a very short time,” she says.
Still, Tau told journalists after the NEC meeting that his special local government task team will be looking closely at how to fast-track rebuilding municipalities.
“Instead of having ad-hoc interventions, we are taking the view that it’s important that we re-envision our system of local government,” Tau said.
“One of the first issues we are looking at is the architecture of local government ... whether it is functioning optimally or not. I think we have identified a number of significant gaps that require intervention.”
The team will begin by reviewing the local government white paper submitted in the previous administration, which focuses on eliminating silos between the three spheres of government.
Some of the immediate steps to stabilise municipalities are to include them in the next phase of Operation Vulindlela, which is run by the Presidency and the National Treasury, and to address the debt crisis at municipal level, which has a knock-on effect on state entities and departments both provincially and nationally.
For the ANC, stabilising local government will be crucial to turning its electoral fortunes around. Its performance has historically been stronger in national and provincial elections; the trend for municipal elections has been a lower voter turnout and a more brutal electorate, unhindered by emotional ties to specific parties who fail to deliver basic services.
If the trend continues, with a 40% vote share for the ANC in 2024’s national and provincial election, the party is on track for another serious drubbing come 2026. Given the state of municipalities across the country, it will be an uphill battle to make a significant change.
Does the current ANC have what it takes to pull off this miraculous turnaround in two short years?
Would you like to comment on this article?
Sign up (it's quick and free) or sign in now.
Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.