Can the DA keep its crown?

It can’t be easy being John Steenhuisen.

He is the guy everyone loves to hate — from the ANC, his fellow opposition parties and the media to possibly some in his own party. 

Just last week, he caused a furore among peevish newcomers to the political space when he urged them to steer clear of his turf in the Western Cape. It’s no surprise; he is after all the leader of the DA, which may struggle to retain the province come May 29, according to analyst and pollster predictions. 

That’s after it faltered in coalition governments in Gauteng, shattering the long-held narrative that it governs better.

Steenhuisen’s task in the next two months is gargantuan: ensure his party retains the Western Cape and grow it sufficiently outside of that so it can play a central role in a national government after the election. Effectively, to catapult the DA to the national stage as no leader has done before him. 

The FM sat down with him at the party HQ in Bruma last week to examine the rocky road to May 29.

“I am confident we are going to have a good election, better than 2019, because in this election we are going to see people voting based on [six] key themes that directly affect them: electricity, jobs, water, crime, education, health — these are things that are going to shift the needle,” he says.

In part, his quiet confidence comes from the party’s internal polling, which has consistently put the DA around the mid-20% mark. In the Western Cape, its polling puts support at 55%-57% — even as external polls and by-elections since the 2021 local government election show its support is declining.

If the DA’s research figures hold, it would mark an improvement on its support in 2021, when it obtained 53.59% in the province. 

Speed bumps ahead

Steenhuisen reels off the party’s successes in the Western Cape: more than 350,000 new jobs in the past year, crime down in priority areas, reduced load-shedding and water shortages, feed-in electricity tariffs. “These are all massively progressive things that are having a huge impact.”

Obviously the people of the Western Cape must decide on the way forward. I think it would be a real shame that the only opposition-controlled province has the door open for an ANC-EFF, doomsday coalition

—  John Steenhuisen

But if incumbency allows a party to establish a track record, it brings its own challenges, he admits — such as higher expectations from residents.  

“Obviously the people of the Western Cape must decide on the way forward. I think it would be a real shame that the only opposition-controlled province has the door open for an ANC-EFF, doomsday coalition,” Steenhuisen says. 

There are other risks to the DA in the Western Cape, primarily from a host of new players — such as former leader Mmusi Maimane’s Build One South Africa and Rise Mzansi — as well as more established ones.

Nonprofit organisation the Third Republic, in a report on by-elections late last year, showed that while the DA had won seven of eight by-elections it contested between the 2021 election and November last year, the Patriotic Alliance (PA) and ActionSA were putting up a challenge in the Western Cape and Gauteng.

Then there’s the FF+: it had six councillors in Western Cape municipalities in 2016 but five years later the number surged to 38. The party now co-governs in 11 councils there, says Western Cape leader Corné Mulder.

He tells the FM the DA faces a stark risk come May 29: it is just three seats away from losing an outright majority in the Western Cape legislature. Mulder says the PA for instance is putting up a serious challenge to the DA — particularly after announcing its leader, Gayton McKenzie, as its premier candidate. 

McKenzie tells the FM he was initially aiming for 20% of the vote in the Western Cape, but he has since revised that to 25%. This after the DA failed to put up a candidate to challenge the PA in an April 24 by-election in Oudtshoorn.

“That place is green,” he says, referring to the PA’s colours. “The DA has not even put up a candidate. This is the second time they have done this.”

He adds: “The ANC is in trouble nationally, the DA in the Western Cape. The PA is the new flavour in the Western Cape and our people are ready.” 

The polls suggest otherwise; PA support remains muted in election surveys. 

“Like I told you before, polls are for strippers. We are going to be the seventh-largest party in this country. It is not just the Western Cape and the DA we are eyeing, it is the Northern Cape too. The ANC is in big trouble there,” McKenzie says. “Zamani Saul will be the last ANC premier of the Northern Cape.”

McKenzie is targeting the sizeable coloured vote in the Western Cape, arguing that the DA draws coloured voters but doles out positions in the provincial government to whites only. He believes this is fertile ground to exploit the DA’s weaknesses. 

One of the possible sticking points for the DA is its position on the war in the Middle East; the ANC has been quick to try to use this issue to win over the sizeable Muslim population in the Western Cape.

The party is reportedly considering its stridently pro-Palestinian international relations & co-operation minister Naledi Pandor as its premier candidate there. 

However, Steenhuisen says he is not worried about the attempts to use the Israel-Palestine issue to weaken the DA. 

“Our stance has always been for a two-state solution. For the setting down of the guns and for dialogue to resolve that intractable conflict, it’s the only way,” he says.

The Bible clearly says that he who curses Israel will be cursed himself. I cannot say ‘bring God back’ as a central PA policy then go against the Bible

—  Gayton McKenzie

The PA’s stance remains firmly pro-Israel.

“It’s a biblical issue for me,” says McKenzie. “The Bible clearly says that he who curses Israel will be cursed himself. I cannot say ‘bring God back’ as a central PA policy then go against the Bible.”

He dismisses the ANC’s stance as simply racist, spending millions taking Israel to the International Court of Justice when back at home, there are people living in abject poverty. “The death toll there in the Cape flats is as bad [as Gaza], my own people are dying. Let them bring Naledi, I won’t change my stance,” he says. 

As for ActionSA, it’s hoping to make inroads in DA strongholds in Gauteng as well as the Western Cape. Party chair Michael Beaumont tells the FM ActionSA is luring support away from the DA across the country, and also from the ANC. 

The party has a complicated relationship with the DA. After his re-election as DA leader last year, Steenhuisen announced a “moonshot pact” — a partnering of like-minded opposition parties to form an agreement with the aim of preventing the rise of populist, divisive parties such as the EFF and, more recently, Jacob Zuma’s MK Party.

The initiative — now called the multiparty charter (MPC) — has progressed significantly. It consists of the DA, the IFP, the FF+, ActionSA and the ACDP. It has already begun working in KwaZulu-Natal, for instance, where the DA and IFP together won 16 new councillors in various municipalities.

The idea is that MPC members could form a national government after the election or support each other in forming provincial governments if the numbers stack up in their favour.

But there are speed bumps ahead — not least of which is the deep distrust some partners have of the DA and whether, when the chips are down, it will opt to work with the ANC.

It is an issue raised both by Beaumont and Mulder. 

“The electorate should have no doubt that none of us will support the ANC to retain power,” Mulder says. 

Beaumont, citing a recent interview Steenhuisen conducted with Bloomberg, says the DA appears to be “preparing its bed for the ANC”. 

Steenhuisen, however, says there is no way to say for sure what will happen after the elections — the environment is simply too unpredictable. Because of this, the DA will work all out to get the MPC over the 50% plus one mark.

I would never do anything that got Paul Mashatile into the presidency. It would be absolute lunacy

—  John Steenhuisen

“Everyone keeps harping on about this. My answer to that is, ‘what ANC?’ Who’s sitting across the table from me? Does [Cyril] Ramaphosa survive being the first ANC president to lose their majority? Am I sitting across the table from Paul Mashatile? ... I mean, that would be a nonstarter for us.

He adds: “I would never do anything that got Paul Mashatile into the presidency. It would be absolute lunacy. So what we would do afterwards, and we would come back with the MPC, the MPC partners, and say: ‘Well, these are the hands that have been dealt to us. What’s the next best thing?’”

This is where the conversation turns to issues such as potential minority governments, confidence, supply arrangements and, of course, the position favoured by business and investors: a government of national unity. 

“These are all the things that are in the mix. But my focus is on getting the MPC over the 51% mark. I will worry about what happens after the election when I see those cards. But for now, I still think the best-case scenario for South Africa is that the MPC gets 50% plus one, because I think it’ll be good for the ANC to spend some time in the opposition.” 

There are risks for Steenhuisen here too: one of the DA’s key partners — the IFP — could opt for a coalition with the ANC to retake control of KZN. 

The IFP in KZN would favour a coalition with the ANC, while its national leadership appears committed to the MPC, at least publicly. An IFP-ANC tie-up would derail the MPC, since it is among the larger parties in the bloc.

Insiders in the ANC have suggested that the IFP or smaller parties such as the PA would be preferable partners in a scenario where the ANC does not receive an outright majority.

The ANC’s support in the last national election was 57.8% — but this fell dramatically just two years later in 2021 to 47% in the local government election. So it’s not inconceivable that the party’s support will slip below 45%. 

The DNA of democracy

The problem is South African polling is unreliable and in desperate need of some form of regulation, says Beaumont. He says surveys released by MarkData, the Social Research Foundation (SRF) and the Brenthurst Foundation have been completely off the mark for ActionSA.

“They are all in some way linked to the DA, whether through funders or researchers, so we do not place any value on them. They are shockingly unreliable,” he says. 

ActionSA barely features in the polling, even though it emerged as the sixth-largest political party after the 2021 election — after contesting just six of the 278 councils in play.

Beaumont says an Ipsos poll that placed ActionSA at about 5% was more plausible; a new poll from the company is set to be released soon. 

SRF director Frans Cronje says taken together, recent surveys by various organisations give a sense of where the country is going.

“If you average out all the polls done, it’s clear the DA will end up at around 24% ... the ANC at around 45%, but after the emergence of the MK Party, this is down to 42%,” he says. 

Cronje sees the evolution of South African politics as inherently positive — a natural progression built into the DNA of democracy. 

“All that is happening now is that the ANC is losing ground and the politics of the country is starting to represent the social and economic structure of society,” he says. 

Cronje adds that it is wrong to assume that having more blocs in the political space is a bad thing — the DA for instance is a party for multigenerational urban middle classes, while the ANC is becoming a party for the larger, aspirant middle classes.

“Politics is fragmenting to better represent society,” he says. 

He adds that the kind of radical populism espoused by parties such as the EFF and the MK Party will cap their support at about 10%-15%.

“Many communities stand to lose a lot with radical populism ... For these parties to make serious inroads, the social situation in the country has to decline dramatically. Levels of desperate poverty would have to rise ... In 10 years the ground could be ripe for it, but not right now,” Cronje says.

Still, Steenhuisen says the ANC could breathe life into these radical parties by forming a coalition with them. He dubs this the “doomsday scenario”, which the MPC should work hard to prevent, because South Africa would experience dramatic disinvestment and the “hyenas” would be in the driving seat.

It would be over for South Africa ... But I think it is something the ANC would think very carefully about. And also, I don't necessarily think that they will go in with the EFF, given the experience they’ve had with them in Joburg and Ekurhuleni

—  John Steenhuisen

“It would be over for South Africa ... But I think it is something the ANC would think very carefully about. And also, I don’t necessarily think that they will go in with the EFF, given the experience they’ve had with them in Joburg and Ekurhuleni. That, I think, is a very unhappy relationship there. And I think they’re realising, as we did in 2016, that not all is as it seems with the EFF. 

“There’s always, always strings attached to whatever they do.”

Steenhuisen maintains that in the final analysis there are only two parties with the ability and structures to canvass across the length and breadth of the country: the ANC and the DA. Writing off the DA at this stage, he argues, would be a mistake. 

There’s only one certainty beyond May 29: the cementing of coalition politics. If Steenhuisen is correct, he may just pull off the achievement that has eluded  his predecessors — proving the cynics wrong and getting the party into a national government. If he is wrong, he could suffer the same fate as his predecessor Maimane, who was effectively pushed out.