ANC launches global charm offensive

The ANC says South Africa is not taking its relationship with the US for granted, and is making an effort to ensure that the two countries do not “talk past each other”. 

In a candid interview with the FM, ANC international relations head and deputy secretary-general Nomvula Mokonyane says South Africa needs the US and the US needs South Africa. But, she adds, “a lot” has happened of late without the countries talking to one another.

The ANC and the government’s position on the war between Russia and Ukraine has also been “misread”, she adds, but their stance is clear: peace and justice are key to resolving any conflict. 

The relationship between South Africa and the US took a turn for the worse this year, when Washington accused South Africa of abandoning its nonaligned stance in the war.

The extent of the rift was clear when US ambassador to South Africa Reuben Brigety told a media conference he was convinced the country had loaded arms for Russia onto the Lady R when it docked in Simon’s Town in December.

However, it was clear that the US had been raising its concerns with the government for months before Brigety went public with his charge. He told journalists he had tried unsuccessfully to meet officials at ANC HQ Luthuli House.

Asked about this falling out, Mokonyane says that, with the two countries now “engaging”, the ANC is confident that “we’ll find one another”. The important thing, she adds, is the focus on “mutual benefit”.

The US is South Africa’s second-largest trading partner after China, and South Africa benefits from preferential access to US markets through the African Growth & Opportunity Act (Agoa). So any breakdown would pose a stark risk to the local economy. An even worse spectre is the possibility of US sanctions.

We are quite keen to invest in this relationship, and to protect it for the good of our country, and for the good of the US itself

—  Nomvula Mokonyane

“We are quite keen to invest in this relationship, and to protect it for the good of our country, and for the good of the US itself,” Mokonyane says, “because they themselves need the space of selling their goods, marketing themselves, as well as ensuring that America thrives.”

Perhaps more important to the US is the political dimension. As US counsellor for public affairs Frank Whitaker told the FM last week: “[South Africa is] the most industrialised country on the continent, arguably the most democratic. And a thriving South Africa will ensure that the rest of Africa rises.

“And there is no other country in Africa that has as strong a judiciary, or which has the depth and breadth of media as South Africa. So we see it as a linchpin on the African continent.” 

Because of this mutual dependence, Mokonyane says dialogue between the two countries will continue, “including meeting with different bodies in the US”. She believes this will help both sides to navigate “perceived tensions”. But, she adds: “What we are opposed to is a situation where the national interests of South Africa get undermined.”

Foreign policy can’t just be about geopolitics, she says. “It must also be selfishly about national interests. Hence we have been managing the issues very carefully in this instance and opted to be nonaligned.”

Mokonyane emphasises that being nonaligned doesn’t imply the ANC has no views on the war — it simply means the party doesn’t favour one side over the other.

That may be a tortuous distinction and a difficult line to sell, given the ANC’s historical position. Jakkie Cilliers, head of African futures & innovation at the Institute for Security Studies, tells the FM that since 1994 South Africa has been “very clearly and deliberately” anti-West. As such, it hasn’t played the nonaligned game well enough to avoid partisanship and enjoy beneficial relationships with all sides.

But the issue is complicated by economic realities. While South Africa’s political orientation may be more closely aligned with the Brics bloc of nations, which includes Russia, its economy remains closely tied to the West.

It comes down to diplomacy — the management of relationships, Cilliers says. “We must be more careful about how we balance those relationships … in our national interest — and our national interest relates to our economy,” he says. “Now, dynamics may be shifting but the South African economy is still deeply embedded in the Western neoliberal system, whether you like it or not.” 

Dynamics may be shifting but the South African economy is still deeply embedded in the Western neoliberal system, whether you like it or not

—  Jakkie Cilliers

Domestically, opposition parties have latched onto the government’s muddled stance on the war. The DA, for instance, has sent delegations to the US to persuade lawmakers not to exclude South Africa from Agoa benefits, and Western Cape premier Alan Winde has threatened to arrest Vladimir Putin if he attends the Brics summit in August and sets foot in the DA-run province.

The government is still weighing its options on Putin’s attendance at the summit. South Africa, as a member of the International Criminal Court, is obliged to act on the arrest warrant issued for the Russian president — but would be loath to do so. Instead, it is considering moving the summit or persuading Putin not to attend.

The DA is piling on further pressure through legal action: it has approached the courts for a declaratory order compelling the state to arrest Putin should he set foot in the country. Interestingly, the government this week missed a second deadline to file responding papers, a likely indication that it doesn’t yet have a firm plan on how to deal with the matter. 

In Cilliers’s view, South Africa has been clumsy in managing the issue. “Because of its anti-West DNA … South Africa has been unable to play that game. India plays — it is part of the G20 [and] Brics — yet it is not in the pocket of China, Russia or the US … Yes, we are much smaller, but we have not managed to do that.” 

It’s not just on the domestic front that the government is feeling pressure. Lobby groups in Washington are looking to punish South Africa for what they see as its ingratitude and anti-US stance.

Putin, it seems, has also pushed South Africa to make clear whose side it is on. A joint naval exercise between South Africa, Russia and China on the first anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine seemed to send a clear signal that Pretoria is nonaligned in word but not in deed.

Cilliers believes Putin has intentionally placed South Africa in a difficult position — for instance when Russia announced the launch of a hypersonic missile during the naval exercises. “It was entirely uncalled for and inappropriate,” he says. “What he did was show South Africa up,” he adds.

He also holds that the Russian leader has no intention of attending the Brics summit. “He will not travel such a long distance, I don’t believe he will come — he’s playing South Africa.”

There is now also the question of how the mutiny by Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin last weekend will affect Putin’s plans, and his willingness to travel.

Perceptions that South Africa is being played may stem from its muddled response to the entire Ukraine issue. Soon after the invasion, News24 reported that international relations & co-operation minister Naledi Pandor had called on Russia to withdraw from Ukraine.

Asked about the issue, Mokonyane defends the government’s decision to ask Pandor to retract the statement.

She says the government’s conduct has at all times been in line with ANC policy — to “silence the guns”. Mokonyane says the ANC leadership elected in December had to confront seismic geopolitical shifts almost immediately — shifts characterised by new dynamics and new adversaries. 

Now the party is on a charm offensive. The ANC is meeting with parties and governments across the world to determine how best to respond to rapidly evolving geopolitics in the “national interest”. Mokonyane herself met the German ambassador to South Africa, Andreas Peschke, last week.

In addition, she says, the party is planning a trip to the US — a delegation visited Russia in recent months — and it is set to hold a dialogue on the war.

President Cyril Ramaphosa has had a slew of meetings with European and African leaders in recent months, in addition to leading the seven-nation African peace mission to Russia and Ukraine. During that trip he stressed that South Africa respects the UN charter on the issue of territorial sovereignty — a sign, analysts say, that he has realised the importance of committing to nonalignment.

But Cilliers describes these moves as damage control. And, he cautions, that ship may already have sailed. 

“It is late, and what is needed is a fundamental shift. That doesn’t mean agreeing with the US and the EU, but it means looking after where our interests are and playing to that and national interests,” he says.

That holds true for South Africa-China trade too. Cilliers believes South Africa’s trade with the US and European countries is more valuable, as trade with China is in manufactured goods. That makes China South Africa’s largest trade competitor in Southern Africa.

“We have to begin looking after our own interests,” he says.