By-elections come and go. They’re also hyper-localised. Taken together, this makes it rare for any single such poll to paint an accurate picture of how the votes will fall at national level. But it could be illuminating when it comes to voter opinions on the broader political landscape. On coalitions, for example.
That’s why next week’s poll in Joburg’s ward 7 will be a treat for political observers. And why parties, the FM understands, are “throwing the kitchen sink” at the election.
It’s not that this single seat is going to sway the balance of power in the politically fractured metro council. But it should give parties a sense of voter appetite for coalitions, and indicate whether that informs their votes at all. Perceptions around the messy coalition politics in the city may, in other words, offer some insight about possible governing pacts in the province and even nationally, ahead of the 2024 elections.
Joburg, with the biggest budget on the continent and the largest council in South Africa, has been hobbled by political instability since the 2021 local government election, when no party received an outright majority.
In ward 7 — a ward split between Ennerdale and an informal settlement — the ANC won 37.7% of the vote in 2021. It was followed by the PA (33%), the DA (12%) and the EFF (5.9%). ActionSA won just 5.5% of the vote.
With the resignation of the ward’s ANC councillor, the seat is up for grabs.
The election is a particularly thorny issue for the DA, historically the majority party in the ward. In 2016, it got 50.8% of the vote there, and in 2011 52%.
But in 2021, the PA almost entirely gobbled up the DA vote — an indication that the 41,000 residents rejected the country’s biggest opposition party but remained unwilling to vote for the ANC.
In part, the PA’s astounding performance could be a function of demographics in a country where party support still often cleaves along racial lines.
Media Monitoring Africa’s Wazimap shows ward 7 to be a predominantly Afrikaans-speaking ward, with a large number of coloured South Africans registered to vote. The PA, for its part, promotes itself as a party for coloureds.
As far as the PA is concerned, the by-election is “very important”.
“The by-election can prove that indeed we are the fastest-growing political party. This by-election is a hotly contested ward in the largest metro on the African continent,” spokesperson Steve Motale tells the FM. (Party leader Gayton McKenzie is refusing media interviews due to his perception of media bias.)
ActionSA chair Michael Beaumont shares the view that the by-election is important for the PA, albeit for different reasons. This will be the first test to see whether its strategy of partnering with the ANC in the council is paying off — or whether it is alienating the party’s core voter base.
It’s a particularly important point, given the coalition chaos in the council and its impact on service delivery. But it’s also taking place against a motion of no confidence in Al Jama-ah mayor Kabelo Gwamanda.
ActionSA’s no-confidence motion is set to take place six days before the by-election and will, the party says, send a signal to voters about party priorities.
The hapless Gwamanda has put on a less than sterling performance since being installed by an ANC/EFF pact, with the support of the PA and other smaller parties, just last month. (His appointment followed the resignation of his Al Jama-ah colleague Thapelo Amad after just three months in office.)
After allegations emerged that Gwamanda ran a funeral scam, he went to ground, missing crucial council meetings. He surfaced to deliver a lacklustre state of the city address, and then fell ill. He returned to council this week to face a gruelling debate on his address and listen to the city budget, presented by the finance MMC and ANC councillor Dada Morero.
Beaumont tells the FM that Gwamanda is clearly out of his depth and simply unqualified to lead a city like Joburg. His highest qualification is said to be grade 10, he adds.
It’s a point that has previously prompted Gwamanda to quip that he is Al Jama-ah’s “John Steenhuisen” — a dig at the DA leader and his matric qualification.
The motion on June 21 will be decided by a show of hands, so it will be very clear who votes in Gwamanda’s favour, he adds. “This is important from our standpoint, because it will put pressure on all parties to do the right thing.”
It is likely that the motion will fail, but the conduct of parties in that motion — or, at least, how voters perceive that conduct — could affect their performance in the by-election, says Beaumont.
ActionSA is using the motion as an indicator of the DA’s commitment to working with opposition parties nationally
The ANC/EFF pact in Joburg is something of a trial run for 2024. The ruling party views this as a way to get smaller parties onside by giving them crucial positions in government while it retains control of the architecture of power.
More cynically, it may be considered an attempt by the party to show that coalitions don’t work in an effort to shore up support.
As things stand, the PA is unlikely to vote against Gwamanda. Though Motale says the party is “looking at his performance keenly”, it remains sympathetic towards him, given his recent illness.
Beaumont believes the no-confidence motion will present the DA with a test of a different kind. ActionSA, he says, is using the motion as an indicator of the DA’s commitment to working with opposition parties nationally through Steenhuisen’s “moonshot pact”. So far, he adds, the party has seemed reluctant to support ActionSA’s motion.
If the DA can’t play ball at local level, he asks, how can it be expected to do so nationally.
Unsurprisingly, DA insiders take an entirely different view. They tell the FM that ActionSA has been trying to “localise” the moonshot pact, instead of treating it as a work in progress towards 2024.
In any event, the DA could easily vote in ActionSA’s favour, the party’s Gauteng leader, Solly Msimanga, tells the FM.
“But then what? What we will have is more instability for the residents of Joburg,” Msimanga tells the FM. “We know that we will not have the numbers to vote for another mayor and even if we do, we know the PA could change its mind at any time and return to the ANC/EFF voting bloc. Why should we vote for further instability?”
It’s a salient point. Joburg has had a revolving door of mayors since 2021 precisely because the numbers fall in no-one’s outright favour. Both the ANC and the DA need the smaller parties — including, and importantly, the EFF and the PA — to obtain an outright majority in the 270-seat council. But even then, it will be a slim majority.
Msimanga says the DA is weighing up the matter carefully. First, if a new mayor is elected, how long will that last? Second, if by some miracle an opposition coalition mayor is elected, what could their administration conceivably do to turn things around before it again loses power?
In other words, what is the plan to extricate Joburg from the service delivery and financial mess the political instability has caused there?
Msimanga believes there are no clear answers to these questions, particularly when parties such as COPE, the PA and others are known for jumping ship when offered positions in government.
We have only ever demanded to be treated with respect, something we have learnt is impossible as far as the DA is concerned
— Steve Motale
There are some signs of stability, however. Nonprofit The Third Republic is tracking shifts in coalitions and in politics in the country’s eight metros with its Metro Monitor. Director Paul Berkowitz says the ANC/EFF pact seems to be showing some signs of resilience, and Patricia de Lille’s Good also seems to be comfortable in bed with the ANC and EFF in Joburg.
Some hard lines are also being drawn, he adds; both Action SA and the DA have ruled out working with the ANC.
The PA, however, remains a wild card.
As Motale tells the FM, the party remains open to engagements — and is “not married to the ANC and has never been”.
But, he adds, “we have only ever demanded to be treated with respect, something we have learnt is impossible as far as the DA is concerned. It is their way or no way.”
In any event, he adds, “we don’t know if the motion will have a bearing on the by-election … but people should vote for the party they think is best and it is our belief they will choose the PA”.
In the greater scheme of national electoral support, the no-confidence vote and by-election are neither here nor there. But the politics here — and in the country’s divided metros more broadly — may give some sign of what’s to come.
Knowing what happens in the metros will be crucial to voters making informed choices in the election next year, says Berkowitz. And that could swing the balance of power.
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