The national state of disaster proposed by the ANC lekgotla this weekend is no silver bullet. But will it jolt President Cyril Ramaphosa’s administration out of its lethargy in dealing with South Africa’s deepening power crisis?
At the heart of the proposal — recommended to Ramaphosa and his team in the run-up to the meeting — is procurement and budgeting. The idea is that a less restrictive regulatory environment will free up the government to make, cost and implement decisions — and to do so fast.
The ANC is under serious pressure ahead of the 2024 general election, so it needs to end vote-draining load-shedding within a year. That means all options are on the table to obtain an additional 4,000-6,000MW to boost supply — even mineral resources & energy minister Gwede Mantashe’s controversial Karpowership proposal.
There is also a push to reconfigure the cabinet so that it can deal with the energy crisis more efficiently, and to form a “multisphere command centre” using state of disaster legislation.
The ANC’s message has a directive: Ramaphosa needs to step up his game. Particularly as Eskom has already said the present bout of load-shedding is likely to remain in place for the next two years at least.
On Tuesday, shortly before the ANC briefed the media on its lekgotla outcomes, the power utility again announced an escalation to stage 6 blackouts.
“The reality is that there is a call across the country that there has to be an extraordinary approach based on our societal and economic reality ... the government can conduct extraordinary interventions beyond what currently exists in our regulatory environment ... they have to go the extra mile,” ANC deputy secretary-general Nomvula Mokonyane told journalists on Tuesday.
Insiders have expressed hope that the implementation of a national state of disaster will provide the government with the necessary push to act with speed.
“We are saying look, do what needs to be done to cut this in a year, but it also does not mean that even in emergency situations, you should be reckless,” a source who attended the meeting tells the FM.
Mantashe, in particular, is said to have delivered an instructive — if sobering — presentation on the dire state of Eskom’s individual power plants. It is understood he also raised the issue of Karpowership — one of a raft of options that could alleviate pressure on the grid in the short term. But he did offer a caveat.
“Gwede spoke about Karpowership but did say it won’t be cheap,” another source says. “He said this was the reason for his initial wish for a 20-year deal, as it would lighten the financial load. Ten years would work, but it would be more expensive.”
The meeting also heard renewable energy sources must become part of the mix — but that construction of the infrastructure needed to take them on board would have to be fast-tracked. At the same time, existing energy infrastructure should be maintained and secured.
In a welcome move, the meeting agreed that subsidies and other incentives should be put in place for households and businesses that install rooftop solar panels.
Still, finance minister Enoch Godongwana said there is little fiscal space to pull off the proposals in such a short time frame without reworking the budget.
“[The] lekgotla noted that there are billions which are projected to be underspent and called for the reprioritisation of the funds to address the crisis,” said ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula. “This can be complemented by the redesign of existing grants to optimise and aggregate infrastructure financing and capacities. Additionally, consideration should be given to the restructuring of the Eskom debt and the financing thereof.”
Ramaphosa is set to flesh out what exactly the state of disaster will entail during a cabinet lekgotla ahead of his state of the nation address next week.
It took a long time to get where we are. It will take a long time to get out
— Chris Yelland
Analysts are cautious about whether Ramaphosa has the capacity to drive such a daring programme. It’s the kind of intervention last seen during the rollout of infrastructure in the run-up to the 2010 Soccer World Cup and during the Covid pandemic.
But those plans, focused on keeping the lights on at all costs, came back to bite. A similar approach in this instance, motivated by the looming election, could be a severe setback, says Chris Yelland, energy analyst and MD of EE Business Intelligence.
Yelland is critical of Ramaphosa too. “He just consults and consults,” he tells the FM. “I recommended this [a state of disaster] to him eight months ago, in writing. But the president is locked in a world of consulting.”
Still, he cautions that declaring a state of disaster is no quick fix. “It took a long time to get where we are,” he says. “It will take a long time to get out.”
That said, he believes the country can get out of its energy predicament “if we do the right thing”.
“If we wait to dot every ‘i’ and cross every ‘t’, we will never get there. We have to get on the road in order to get to the other side,” he says, expressing hope that the declaration of a state of disaster will bring Ramaphosa’s endless consulting to an end.
“This country likes to talk things to death; in the end it takes so long to make decisions ... but one thing that gives me hope is the president finally understands and recognises that the customers of electricity and those affected are the solution,” says Yelland.
Cosatu parliamentary liaison Matthew Parks has also welcomed the move towards a national state of disaster, saying the trade union federation pushed for this in a meeting with Ramaphosa three weeks ago.
Parks tells the FM the move is likely to bolster public confidence in the government’s ability to address the power crisis and bring together all players, from the National Treasury to municipalities and law enforcement agencies, in an effort to resolve it.
“We are saying if Eskom needs R10bn for diesel, give it to them, the cost of load-shedding on the economy is far greater than that,” Parks says.
Corruption, however, is a grave concern — particularly given past experience. Parks cautions that the government has to keep a close eye on how much is being spent and what is being bought in the more relaxed regulatory environment of a state of disaster.
It’s a view echoed by the opposition DA.
“Complete parliamentary oversight will be required every step of the way to prevent a repeat of the [personal protective equipment] looting frenzy during the Covid state of disaster,” says DA mineral resources & energy spokesperson Kevin Mileham.
He says a properly implemented, ring-fenced and transparently managed state of disaster will “enable the government to bypass its own self-imposed obstacles and bottlenecks and cost inflation in the form of unworkable labour legislation, localisation requirements and BEE”.
That’s why the DA has been calling for a national state of disaster since last year — and why it’s set to write to the speaker to table the matter immediately.
A state of disaster will make the government more nimble in responding to the power crisis. But it does come with risks — including corruption of the sort seen during Covid
— What it means:
Though it’s drawn wide support, not everyone is behind the ANC’s proposal.
For example Lawson Naidoo, executive secretary of the Council for the Advancement of the South African Constitution, isn’t convinced that a state of disaster is necessary.
“I am still trying to figure out the legal basis for such a move and figure out what powers the government wants to get around,” he tells the FM. “It is a bit like putting the cart before the horse. What is crucial is that this [issue] is debated transparently and thoroughly before parliament.”
The EFF, ever the dissenter, has opposed the imposition of a state of disaster. It rejects the move as “pretence”, an attempt to show Ramaphosa is actually doing something about the power crisis.
The party says the move is “premised on greed” and an “uncontrolled desire to privatise Eskom without being held accountable”.
In protest of the power crisis, the EFF has called for a national shutdown on March 20. It’s a move that will only put more pressure on the ANC on the road to the 2024 polls.
For now, however, attention will shift to Ramaphosa’s state of the nation address on February 9, in which he will likely lay out details of his energy plan.
The details have yet to be spelt out, but what is clear is that the party has put a gun to Ramaphosa’s head to end power cuts within a year. It’s left him in an unenviable position — but, given his dithering, it’s one of his own making.
*Correction: It was previously stated that Eskom needs 46,000MW, when in fact it should have been 4,000-6,000MW. We apologise for the error.
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