Gwede Mantashe, the grubby master blaster of South African politics, has blasted himself back onto the political scene. It’s a stunning revival, made possible by Cyril Ramaphosa’s successful bid for a second term at the helm of the ANC.
Yet three weeks ago, it was Mantashe who gave Ramaphosa the political equivalent of CPR, when the president was on the verge of resigning over the Phala Phala debacle after a parliamentary panel said he had a prima facie case to answer.
Mantashe swaggered in, like the political bully he is, and told Ramaphosa bluntly: you’re not going anywhere. Or words to that effect.
Mantashe joined forces with two other unionists, Frans Baleni and James Motlatsi, to sway the president.
These three share many similarities. First, they all come from the National Union of Mineworkers, an institution Ramaphosa co-founded with Motlatsi in 1982. Mantashe later became its general secretary and handed the baton to Baleni in 2005.
Second, they all live close to each other, on Joburg’s East Rand. This trio, along with two other East Rand residents — finance minister Enoch Godongwana and minister in the presidency Mondli Gungubele — fought the rearguard battle to save Ramaphosa.
In ANC parlance, Mantashe, Gungubele and Godongwana are known as the “Chris Hani cabal”, since their ancestral homes are in Cala in the Chris Hani district of the Eastern Cape.
And it worked out well for Mantashe, who was perhaps the biggest winner at Nasrec, earning a second term as ANC chair.
It reinforces his position as ANC royalty. Mantashe broke into the ANC’s top structures at the Polokwane conference in 2007, serving 10 years as secretary-general. At the same time, he also chaired the South African Communist Party, consolidating his power across the three pillars of the tripartite alliance.
Unexpected revival
And yet, two months ago, his political career looked dead.
Mantashe’s name hadn’t been raised as branches began nominating leaders, and he seemed to have accepted the likelihood that he wouldn’t return to the ANC’s top echelons.
In the government, he was also vulnerable as the minister for mineral resources & energy. With Ramaphosa expected to reshuffle his cabinet in the new year, Mantashe was seen as an obstacle to getting more renewable energy onto the grid.
Depicted as a fossil fuel fundamentalist who couldn’t foresee a future without coal, he was considered an out-of-touch dinosaur.
It is easy to see why: he is a former coal mineworker who associates with proponents of coal and other fossil fuel technologies, while downplaying the role renewables could play.
Ramaphosa is now indebted to him. Mantashe did the heavy lifting from November, and topped it off at the Nasrec conference by dragging many branch delegates from vacillating provinces such as North West to the Ramaphosa camp.
This suggests Mantashe has earned himself a few more years in the government. His critics will be praying, however, that this won’t be in the minerals & energy department.
This is all the more crucial since some of the delegates at Nasrec wanted Eskom to be prised away from the public enterprises department and placed under Mantashe’s department.
That would be a huge flexing of muscles by Mantashe, and demonstrate a strong power shift away from public enterprises minister Pravin Gordhan.
Godongwana tells the FM that where Eskom fits into the government is a matter the president can handle easily — not something that requires 4,000 delegates to decide.
“That is an operational issue. It concerns the assignment of functions, which the president can do any time,” he says. “You can’t sit in a big meeting like this and discuss the nitty-gritty.”
Yet the ANC is seized with Eskom, as it ought to be, considering the party’s own role in destroying the utility and the impact blackouts have had on its electoral prospects.
Godongwana says the ANC needs to look at ways to boost Eskom’s “energy availability factor”, for one.
“What we [as the ANC] should say is: we need to provide electricity to supply to this economy,” he adds.
If Eskom is indeed moved to the minerals & energy department, critics will be crossing fingers that Mantashe isn’t there to oversee it.
In recent weeks, Mantashe’s destructive influence was on full display, when a series of full-throated but incoherent attacks on André de Ruyter led to his resignation as Eskom CEO.
Mantashe had said, remarkably, that “Eskom, by not attending to load-shedding, is agitating for the overthrow of the state”. This compounded his earlier statements that De Ruyter was acting “like a policeman” at the corruption-riddled entity.
‘No fossil fuel dinosaur’
Godongwana says that while Mantashe often gets caricatured for his apparent closeness to the fossil fuel industry, the reality is that the government’s energy policy is much broader. Mantashe’s view is consistent with government concerns about jobs that may be lost if coal mines were shut down, he says.
“The minister is facing a lot of pressure from outside the government and society to embrace renewables. Inside the ANC, he’s got a lot of support for his stance,” he says.
Godongwana says Mantashe isn’t a “fossil fuel dinosaur”, but has merely articulated a government policy about the protection of jobs in the coal industry. And, in doing so, he has been “misrepresented”.
“We cannot afford not to move to a low-carbon economy. Mantashe subscribes to that,” says Godongwana. “Where the difference lies is how do you move to a low-carbon economy. Some say the only route is renewables. And Mantashe says no, we can’t be dominated by renewables ... what about nuclear? What about gas?”
By aiding the president in his successful bid to lead the ANC for a second term, Mantashe has placed Ramaphosa in his debt — but critics hope he will be moved to a different portfolio
— What it means:
Yet Intellidex analyst Peter Attard Montalto says Mantashe is largely seen as someone who is “blocking reforms” around energy policy.
This year, Attard Montalto says Mantashe became “quite passive” on the subject, which allowed movement on renewable energy to happen.
In particular, the government passed new rules, making it possible for private users to build their own energy capacity up to 100MW. Mantashe had resisted this initially, instead wanting private users to only be able to generate up to 10MW.
But as much as Ramaphosa has taken considerable heat for the Eskom crisis, it is Mantashe’s “go-slow” on renewables which contributed to this.
Quite where this leaves Mantashe in Ramaphosa’s new dispensation remains to be seen.
But Attard Montalto says it’s clear the president “owes him right now” — which suggests Mantashe won’t be out in the cold, as much as many are hoping for it.
* Mkokeli is the lead partner at Mkokeli Advisory. He is a former public enterprises spokesperson
Would you like to comment on this article?
Sign up (it's quick and free) or sign in now.
Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.