Deputy President David Mabuza’s love of mathematics makes him a cunning politician.
This was evident at the Nasrec ANC elective conference in 2017, when the former maths teacher acted as a kingmaker, deciding that it was Cyril Ramaphosa — and not Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma — who should lead the ANC.
Five years later, and Ramaphosa appears to be in the lead. Some calculations, using the ANC branch nomination process, suggest he could claim between 62% and 65% of the votes — which would leave his challenger, former health minister Zweli Mkhize far behind.
So what if Mabuza decides to stand too for the presidency, and is nominated from the floor over the weekend? That would create havoc, since the votes would be split. But who would benefit the most?
That’s difficult to say, given the variables. First, Mabuza would need to collect the voting scraps that had previously landed with candidates like Lindiwe Sisulu. But the big fish to hook would be the votes headed for the leading deputy presidency, treasury-general Paul Mashatile.
Mashatile, curiously, has been rejected by the Ramaphosa camp, even though the President’s team looks about as confused as a kid in a candy store when it comes to who to choose as his running mate.
Officially, Eastern Cape premier Oscar Mabuyane and justice minister Ronald Lamola — both from the Ramaphosa camp — are on the ballot, but both are currently far below Mashatile for the post of deputy president.
However, there has also been a strong push to have Senzo Mchunu nominated from the floor as a candidate for the deputy presidency. But that’s a path fraught with risks: if Mchunu couldn’t gather enough votes during the earlier stages of voter nomination, why would he do any better when the actual conference vote happens?
In theory, the idea is that since Mchunu comes from KwaZulu-Natal, his election would help neutralise that province's hostility towards Ramaphosa. But at this point, it looks like a hard sell.
For one thing, it’s not as if Mabuyane and Lamola are backing down. But then, why would they, when they each clocked up more than 400 votes, while Mchunu didn’t scrape together 50 branch nominations.
Still, the disagreements in the Ramaphosa camp about his running mate means anything could still happen. We could, for example, see the Eastern Cape and Mpumalanga work together, putting up Mabunaye for deputy president and Lamola for Treasurer. But even then, they still wouldn’t beat Mashatile.
You’d think they’d need to find a plan fast, because right now, the turmoil over the deputy presidency threatens to split the faction’s support.
As for Mabuza, he has remained as elusive as ever. Outside the ANC, he was never seen as a particularly strong candidate for the presidency, due to his proximity to a number of scandals in his home province of Mpumalanga.
And yet, the fact that he emerged as deputy president in 2017 tells you that it’s no coincidence that he calls himself ’the Cat’, because of political survival skills. In particular, Mabuza has shown no reluctance to switch allegiances at a moment’s notice, depending on which way the wind is blowing.
At one point, he was one of former president Jacob Zuma’s staunchest allies, whom he helped fend off numerous calls for his resignation. But he swiftly ditched Zuma to help Ramaphosa win the 2017 ANC election contest against Zuma’s preferred candidate, Nkoszana Dlamini-Zuma.
One of the reasons often cited for his curious decision to take a back seat in the current horse-trading is ill health. Mabuza claims his opponents tried to kill him by poisoning his food at his birthday party in 2015. He has since spent several months undergoing treatment in South African and Russian hospitals.
The question is, what will he do this time around? Mabuza, as usual, is staying in the shadows and keeping his cards close to his chest. But it’s from that vantage point that he has proved immensely influential in the past.
It’ll all become clear soon enough: elections were meant to start on Friday, but will probably take place on Sunday.
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