With almost half of the ANC’s provincial conferences completed, President Cyril Ramaphosa looks set to remain in position for a second term. And while his detractors will be sure to try to use recent revelations around the theft of $4m from his farm against him, his staunch supporters are unperturbed by the news, if the Limpopo conference this weekend was anything to go by.
Still, while all of the four newly elected provincial leadership teams have declared their support for him, it doesn’t mean everything is going to be plain sailing.
Instead of gunning for the top spot, Ramaphosa’s detractors are aiming to score other positions in the top six and in the national executive committee (NEC), political analyst and Fort Hare deputy vice-chancellor Oscar van Heerden tells the FM.
“The RET [radical economic transformation] faction knows the ANC won’t win a 2024 election without Cyril as a face,” he says. “There is a strategy that says: ‘If we give him his presidency, we take the majority of the NEC, we will determine who are the parliamentarians, and [who sits] on the chapter 9 institutions, and so on.’”
Such a move could prove limiting for Ramaphosa — much like the situation after the ANC’s 2017 national elective conference at Nasrec. Coming into power with just over half the party’s support and a divided top six made it a struggle to implement his reform agenda.
KwaZulu-Natal (KZN), Limpopo, Mpumalanga and the Eastern Cape are expected to be the four biggest provinces at the national conference in December (final numbers will only be available after a membership audit ahead of the event). So far, three have declared their support for Ramaphosa — but it’s not been entirely unqualified.
Limpopo
The re-election of Limpopo premier Stan Mathabatha for a third term as provincial chair this past weekend was swiftly followed by the province’s endorsement of Ramaphosa — a repeat of its public support for the president in January.
Limpopo’s support for Ramaphosa appears to be unwavering, even amid damaging allegations by former spy boss Arthur Fraser that Ramaphosa had attempted to cover up the theft of about $4m in cash from his Phala Phala farm in February 2020.
Delegates to the conference cheered when Ramaphosa told them during his closing address: “I have never stolen money from anywhere. Be it from our taxpayers, be it from anyone. I have never done so, and will never do so.”
With both Mathabatha and his challenger, public works MEC Dickson Masemola, behind Ramaphosa, the president was guaranteed the province’s backing going into the conference. But ANC treasurer Paul Mashatile had a more vested interest in Mathabatha winning the race — Mathabatha is an ally of Mashatile’s, and has already given his campaign for the party deputy presidency the provincial endorsement he needs.
Mathabatha’s support for Ramaphosa comes with personal ambition: he is eyeing a spot on Ramaphosa’s national slate, possibly as overall party chair.
But some of Mathabatha’s allies, elected to the provincial executive committee alongside him with a convincing majority, have been implicated in corruption — an apparent contradiction of Ramaphosa’s determination to fight graft.
For example, newly elected provincial deputy Florence Radzilani, who will lead the province if Mathabatha is promoted to national chair, was implicated in advocate Terry Motau’s report on corruption at VBS Mutual Bank while she was executive mayor of the Vhembe municipality.
The municipality lost R300m in deposits to VBS Mutual Bank, which is alleged to have unlawfully distributed a total of R2.3bn to a number of politically connected individuals.
After initially stepping aside as required by the ANC’s rules, Radzilani was allowed to return two years later, in 2020, when no charges were brought against her.
Former Lepelle-Nkumpi mayor Nakedi Sibanda-Kekana, now provincial treasurer, was also implicated in the VBS scandal. And though former provincial treasurer Danny Msiza was not allowed to contest the provincial election — he was formally indicted by the National Prosecuting Authority over the VBS matter in March — he was reportedly a key campaigner for Mathabatha.
The character of leadership in office does send a message to our people
— Dickson Masemola
Still, Msiza’s ally and defender, Reuben Madadzhe, was nominated from the floor after Msiza declined nomination. Madadzhe, who previously opposed attempts to get Msiza to step aside, defeated Soviet Lekganyane to become provincial secretary.
Masemola told News24 ahead of the conference it is deplorable that the ANC in the province still supports those implicated in the VBS controversy.
“The trust deficit is on how we have handled some of these issues, and the character of leadership in office does send a message to our people,” he said.
Limpopo is set to be the second-largest province at the December conference, after significant growth in membership over the past five years.
Mpumalanga
While Mpumalanga has also been an overall win for Ramaphosa, support in that province has been qualified.
MEC Mandla Ndlovu was elected provincial chair over Lucky Ndinisa — ally of ANC deputy president and Mpumalanga’s influential former premier David Mabuza — but not everyone on his slate is behind the president.
Newly elected provincial deputy secretary Lindiwe Ntshalintshali, for example, is known to be a staunch ally of suspended ANC secretary-general Ace Magashule.
And Mandla Msibi, while not an outspoken opponent of Ramaphosa, flouted the spirit of the step-aside rule when he was elected provincial treasurer despite being charged with murder.
After the party’s resolution on the matter in 2017, and subsequent reiterations of this by Ramaphosa, Msibi was supposed to have stepped aside and not be in the running for the position at all. (This rule was clarified by the ANC NEC after his election, but Msibi has been allowed to remain in his position.)
Though Mabuza’s absolute power in the province appears to have been broken, loyalties have been notoriously fluid (Ramaphosa’s victory as president in 2017 was thanks to a last-minute swing in support by a significant Mpumalanga bloc).
While Ramaphosa can likely count on majority support from Mpumalanga, it’s unlikely that all the delegates will back him come December.
Eastern Cape
The Eastern Cape’s provincial conference was a tense affair, with private security guards with masks and bulletproof vests keeping peace at the event.
As expected, it was a tight contest, with provincial premier Oscar Mabuyane emerging victorious by a slim margin to reclaim his seat as party chair. But that means the camp opposing Mabuyane will go to the December conference with a sizeable delegation.
Mabuyane is considered a key campaigner for Ramaphosa. Two more of his most powerful campaigners also hail from this province — finance minister Enoch Godongwana and minister in the presidency Mondli Gungubele. They have been spotted at conferences in other provinces, where they were rumoured to be lobbying for Ramaphosa.
Eyewitness News’s Tshidi Madia has reported that their detractors refer to them as the “Chris Hani cabal”, with reference to the region they hail from.
Mabuyane’s former ally and now rival Babalo Madikizela also initially supported Ramaphosa, but has subsequently rallied behind Mashatile and former health minister Zweli Mkhize, who resigned last year after allegations of corruption related to the Digital Vibes communications contract.
All four of the ANC provinces that have held their elective conferences so far have made clear their support for Cyril Ramaphosa’s re-election as party president
— WHAT IT MEANS:
The lay of the land
The Northern Cape was the first province to go to conference, last year already, with re-elected provincial chair and premier Zamani Saul proclaiming his support for Ramaphosa’s leadership. Though this is the ANC’s smallest province, Saul’s win was a morale boost for the Ramaphosa camp.
Gauteng, North West and the Free State are all expected to have their conferences towards the end of June, while KZN is set to turn out in July and the Western Cape in August.
The outcome in Gauteng will be significant for Mashatile as well as Ramaphosa, who both have support bases in the province. The outcomes of three of the four regional conferences in the province point to this being a tight race.
A win for co-operative governance MEC Lebogang Maile would strengthen Mashatile’s hand, putting pressure on Ramaphosa to put him on the deputy president ticket. But a win for deputy chair and education MEC Panyaza Lesufi would be a major boost for Ramaphosa, giving him more free rein.
The Free State conference will be an important gauge of Magashule’s grip on the party. Some say he continues to hold great sway in the province, despite his suspension from the party.
“Ace retained his footing in the SGO,” a supporter says, referring to the office of the secretary-general. “As long as Ace is out of that office, you can expect contestation to ratchet up, but if he comes back, it will diminish that significantly.”
Magashule is only allowed to return should corruption charges against him be dropped, or he be exonerated from wrongdoing by a court.
Mashatile, meanwhile, has been acting as secretary-general, but Gwen Ramokgopa was appointed earlier this year to assist him — and to counter any of Magashule’s remaining influence in an office that has significant powers when it comes to determining delegates for the elective conference.
In KZN, Ramaphosa’s detractors claim that seven of the 11 regions in the province will back a rival candidate — possibly Mkhize. But Ramaphosa’s supporters are bullish, saying he has significant support in a province previously united against him.
The province’s biggest region, eThekwini, defied Ramaphosa by electing corruption-accused former mayor Zandile Gumede as chair (before the step-aside rule was clarified).
It is not yet clear who will be challenging premier and Ramaphosa supporter Sihle Zikalala for the position, but his re-election is not a certainty.
The Western Cape conference has been delayed, as its provincial task team has been slow to revive flagging branches. Due to its diminished size and the fact that the party hasn’t been in power in the province since 2016, the outcome will have a negligible effect at national level.
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