Messy coalitions will derail Gauteng’s economic growth prospects and hold back development in the country’s wealthiest province.
This is the view of Gauteng premier and ANC provincial chair David Makhura. Since 2016, he’s led a province in which all three metros — Joburg, Tshwane and Ekurhuleni — are run by coalition governments.
It’s made governance a somewhat chaotic affair: three different mayors have held office in Tshwane since 2016, and power in Joburg has shifted from the DA to the ANC over that same period.
The latter metro is currently without a mayor, after the death of two incumbents in four months: Geoff Makhubo died from Covid complications in July; his successor, Jolidee Matongo, was killed in a car accident on September 18.
Together, the three metros account for 90% of the economy of Gauteng, SA’s wealthiest and most populous province.
With the 2021 local government election almost upon us, it’s almost assured that at least one of Gauteng’s metros — or even all three — will again be governed by coalitions. This is particularly so, given the increasing number of smaller parties and independent candidates.
While all three metros are fair game, the focus for the large parties is undoubtedly on Joburg, SA’s biggest-budget metro, and the city contributing 40% to Gauteng’s GDP.
But the election comes at an unprecedented time — amid a global pandemic, and with SA’s strongest political parties under tremendous pressure.
The ANC has lost both its liberation gloss and its standing as the leader of society. Its electoral support has eroded steadily since 2009 — and things aren’t looking good this time around either.
"The red lights are flashing," Makhura tells the FM. "We have seen the impact of Covid on the mood [of the electorate].
"Naturally, we are in government, everything will be blamed on us. As the ANC government, we take responsibility for getting the country to work."
But, he adds: "Covid corruption has further eroded confidence [in the ruling party]."
The Special Investigating Unit is investigating corrupt personal protective equipment contracts worth about R14.2bn, unit head Andy Mothibi told parliament in May. The Gauteng health department is at the heart of the rot, which cost health MEC Bandile Masuku his job last October.
The party’s hold on the provincial government is tenuous, too. The ANC scraped a narrow win in the province in the 2019 national election, garnering 51% of the vote.
Part of the problem, says Makhura, has been trying to keep things running when relations between the provincial and local levels of government are virtually nonexistent. This affects everything from housing delivery to investment.
By way of example, Makhura cites the poor working relationship between former DA Joburg mayor Herman Mashaba (now head of ActionSA) and the province under Makhura: ties were strained and hostile, and it was difficult to get things done.
Mashaba claimed the mayoral office after a co-operation agreement was reached between the DA and the EFF. But he was seen — even by members of his own party at the time — as a proxy for the EFF in council.
The DA’s other coalition partners were also deeply unhappy with the way Mashaba ran the city.
His dramatic resignation, after the DA’s poor election performance in 2019, allowed the ANC to reclaim control of the city.
"When a coalition does not work, things just don’t get done. It affects the provincial government as well. We want to be sure that municipalities function, no matter which party wins," says Makhura.
He hastily adds that he hopes to see a decisive victory for the ANC. But in any event, he hopes to see one party take full responsibility for running the key metros in Gauteng.
"With coalitions you are so busy managing the politics, it becomes difficult to focus on actual delivery and on citizens.
"This is why citizens must give a clear mandate to one party," he says.
The relationship between the Tshwane mayors and the provincial government has been slightly better, but still complex. The switching of mayors there meant provincial work on the special economic zones and infrastructure projects was cumbersome; the province had to restart the process each time a new mayor was inducted. Three times, in other words.
Solly Msimanga resigned his position as mayor to stand as the party’s premier candidate for Gauteng in the 2019 election. His successor, Stevens Mokgalapa resigned early last year as a result of a sex scandal. He was replaced by Randall Williams, who remains the DA mayoral candidate in the upcoming polls.
"In Joburg we lost three years during the Mashaba period," Makhura says. "In Tshwane it has been slow, but we managed to pull off investments — but at a slow pace."
But dismal service delivery cannot be blamed on messy coalitions alone. Municipalities are bloated, cumbersome and struggling to deal with delivery backlogs. Joburg’s billing system, for instance, has been a problem for years.
Then there’s the Covid effect: the pandemic deepened the financial woes of many municipalities, with revenue collection taking a large hit amid job losses and salary cuts in many households.
Campaigning for control of Joburg has kicked off in earnest, with the DA announcing former health MMC Mpho Phalatse as its mayoral candidate.
Phalatse, who has traversed the city’s suburbs and townships, tells the FM she will ensure development in poorer areas — but also that services that are paid for are, in fact, rendered.
"What I am hearing from residents is that they pay their rates, but they do not receive value because their areas are ignored or neglected by the city. I will ensure that this comes to an end," she says.
Phalatse says she’ll use the city’s resources to benefit its residents and ensure that her administration is clean and professionally run.
Should the DA win Joburg, Phalatse — also a medical doctor — will be the city’s first female mayor.
The FM understands that the ANC has not yet finalised who should replace Matongo. Insiders say there is a preference for a female candidate, and finance MMC Matshidiso Mfikoe and corporate & shared services MMC Loyiso Masuku are considered potential frontrunners.
In the end, the battle for the city and the two other metros in the province will depend on whether parties are able to get their supporters out come voting day.
But various wrangles around the elections have meant campaign season is short. That places a party like the ANC at a distinct disadvantage — it usually uses the lengthy run-up to the polls to mobilise party loyalists across the country, using thousands of volunteers and activists in the process.
This time around, it’s unable to do so — particularly in light of its severe financial constraints.
The DA, too, is on the ropes. Its support in Gauteng had been increasing steadily, reaching 30.7% in the province in the 2014 national election and an impressive 37% in 2016. But that dropped to 25% in 2019, and it has since shed support in by-elections.
Its prospects could be harmed by former leader Mmusi Maimane, who is organising and assisting independent candidates and associations to take on established parties in the polls, as well as controversies that arose when the DA controlled Gauteng metros. And Mashaba has also drawn away a number of party activists to join ActionSA.
The game is wide open in Gauteng, and the stakes are high. And, while coalitions are not a palatable solution for most players, they seem an inevitability for now.
The question is how long it will take SA’s political parties to mature enough to make these power arrangements work — not just for themselves, but for the residents of Gauteng.
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