As economies across the globe start reopening, city dwellers seem to be returning to international capitals following last year’s mass exodus to greener pastures.
New York’s Manhattan resembled a ghost town for much of 2020. Similarly, once bustling high streets in London were left deserted as city slickers opted to sit out the pandemic in more countrified surrounds.
This migration was supported by the rise of the work-from-anywhere trend, which prompted a global reassessment of housing needs, says Liam Bailey, global head of research at UK-based property group Knight Frank.
The expectation at the time was that the Covid-induced exodus would be permanent, potentially causing long-term shifts in all sectors of the world’s urban economies, from transport to health care and property.
But Bailey is seeing increasing evidence that the escape to country and coast was temporary. He refers to data from Bloomberg, among others, which shows only 3% of people who moved across the US in the year to February planned to relocate permanently.
He says when people moved, they generally didn’t go very far. "In the 50 most populous cities, for example, 84% of moves were to somewhere within the perimeter of the central metro area."
Bailey believes part of the migration story is about the mobility of the wealthy, who were able to move temporarily to holiday homes or rented leisure accommodation with the intention of returning to the city once corporate head offices reopened.
But closer to home, it seems South Africans who "semigrated" to the coast or to countryside "Zoom towns" may well be looking to stay put.
Seeff Property Group chair Samuel Seeff says while there may be a migration back to the big cities among some who bought second homes in coastal areas, "for many it has been a permanent move".
He cites lower interest rates and pandemic-related shifts in buying patterns — most notably the search for a better quality of life — as key drivers of increased demand for coastal properties. The biggest beneficiaries of the trend include Langebaan on the west coast, and the False Bay suburbs of Muizenberg, Fish Hoek, Strand and Gordon’s Bay, for their coastal value and proximity to Cape Town.
Also popular, according to Seeff, are Hermanus on the Overberg coast, along with coastal villages in the southern Cape, such as Gansbaai and Struisbaai. Plettenberg Bay is more popular than ever as a destination for either semigration or a second home, and the Zimbali Coastal Reserve and Ballito, on the KwaZulu-Natal north coast, have regained favour, especially among upcountry Joburg and Pretoria buyers.
Seeff notes smaller inland towns close to coastal cities are also benefiting from the ongoing relocation trend. These include winelands towns such as Paarl, Wellington, Tulbagh and Stellenbosch.
In addition, there’s been an uptick in sales on Cape Town’s upmarket Atlantic seaboard, as wealthy buyers seek second homes. In fact, Seeff tells the FM that despite ongoing political noise, sales to foreigners are at the highest level in three years. The rebound is particularly evident in the R20m-plus bracket.
Yael Geffen, CEO of Lew Geffen Sotheby’s International Realty, agrees that the call of the coast is unlikely to fade any time soon, with remote working becoming permanent for many.
Homebuyers are prioritising lifestyle and looking for safer and more laid-back areas in which to raise families, she says.
"The growing unrest in metros and the looting last month will further drive the move to smaller towns on the coast and to regions that are perceived as safer, most notably the Western Cape."
Geffen says the group’s coastal offices are now among its most active. The top performers in annual sales growth in the nine months to March are the Cape west coast (up 291%), followed by Cape Town’s city bowl (288%), Atlantic seaboard (174%) and False Bay (162%), and Knysna (117%).
Latest data from property information company Lightstone supports reports of increased demand in coastal areas. While house price growth for coastal and noncoastal areas was level in the first quarter last year (about 3%), Lightstone’s coastal index rallied markedly ahead of its noncoastal one from the second quarter.
Coastal price growth now sits at 7.4%, while growth in noncoastal regions is at 5%.
The lure of coastal areas is likely to continue because remote working has become
permanent for many
— What it means:
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