The legal ramifications of the Constitutional Court judgment sentencing former president Jacob Zuma to 15 months in jail will resonate far into the future. But its political implications are a weighty matter too, particularly for President Cyril Ramaphosa as he attempts to "reform" the ruling ANC.
Acting chief justice Sisi Khampepe offered an apt opening to a devastating judgment that will now send the giggling, gyrating godfather of Nkandla to prison for contempt of court. Reading the 66-page majority judgment, Khampepe quoted SA’s first democratic president, Nelson Mandela: "We expect you to stand on guard not only against direct assault on the principles of the constitution, but against insidious corrosion."
These were the words with which Mandela opened the Constitutional Court in 1995.
In contrast, "insidious corrosion" was the leitmotif of the Zuma presidency. But it was his final assault — on the Constitutional Court and the judiciary — that was a step too far.
Zuma defied a Constitutional Court order compelling him to appear before the commission of inquiry into state capture. He shunned court proceedings, instead penning lengthy missives in which he attacked the integrity of the Constitutional Court and the broader judiciary.
It was, from the outset, a bizarre legal strategy — and, in adopting it, Zuma himself said he would rather go to jail than subject himself to the courts, which he deemed biased and unfair.
And so on Tuesday, the Constitutional Court delivered its judgment on the commission’s application to hold him in contempt.
"I pen this judgment in response to the precarious position in which this court finds itself on account of a series of direct assaults, as well as calculated and insidious efforts launched by former president Jacob Gedleyihlekisa Zuma, to corrode its legitimacy and authority," Khampepe said.
"Never before has this court’s authority and legitimacy been subjected to the kinds of attacks that Mr Zuma has elected to launch against it and its members. Never before has the judicial process been so threatened."
The court sent a strong message that no-one is above the law, and that Zuma’s conduct and his subsequent attacks on the judiciary would not be tolerated.
Khampepe drew an uncompromising line under Zuma’s persistent attempts to abuse the legal system to shirk accountability. Her message was clear: it ends now.
One thing is clear, and this is that justice has been served in the most unexpected way
"Not only is Mr Zuma’s behaviour so outlandish as to warrant a disposal of ordinary procedure, but it is becoming increasingly evident that the damage being caused by his ongoing assaults on the integrity of the judicial process cannot be cured by an order down the line. It must be stopped now," she said.
"It cannot be gainsaid that the longer that Mr Zuma’s recalcitrance is allowed to sit in the light, and heat, of day, so the threat faced by the rule of law and the administration of justice, curdles … It is perspicuous that it is in the broad public interest that this court sends an unequivocal message that its orders cannot simply be ignored with impunity."
The judgment has been deemed fascinating in legal circles, with two judges presenting a dissenting view — not on Zuma’s guilt, mind you, but on the sanction he should face.
But what are the political consequences of the judgment?
Shortly after it was handed down, Zuma’s backers — largely limited now to Carl Niehaus and the recently disbanded Umkhonto weSizwe Military Veterans Association — rejected the ruling.
The ANC, for its part, released a statement saying it was "studying" the ruling and the party’s national executive committee (NEC) would over the weekend reflect on the "implications and consequences".
"Without doubt this is a difficult period in the movement and we call upon our members to remain calm," party spokesperson Pule Mabe said.
It’s hardly the response one would expect from a party that claims to respect and uphold the rule of law.
Yet the NEC — the party’s highest decision-making body between conferences — came out clearly in support of the judiciary at a meeting in March. At the time, it was considered yet another indication of Zuma’s waning influence in the ANC.
At that meeting, the NEC made a tacit pronouncement on Zuma’s defiance of the court. "While no arm of the state is above criticism, the ANC distances itself from attacks on the judiciary that seek to undermine its legitimacy and the decisions that it takes," Ramaphosa said in wrapping up the meeting, adding that the NEC agreed to support and strengthen all institutions that helped to advance constitutional democracy.
"Our constitution provides sufficient safeguards against the abuse of power by any arm of the state, and any person who has evidence of any misdemeanour or abuse should make use of the available remedies that are clearly outlined in our legislative instruments," he added.
At the same time, the NEC reiterated its support for the Zondo commission.
So it’s difficult to imagine how the NEC could emerge from a meeting now with a different stance.
The reaction from Zuma’s backers after the judgment smacked of desperation: it was confused, scattered and impulsive. His spokesperson Mzwanele Manyi reportedly cited the "minority judgment" as offering some hope in helping Zuma out of the corner into which he’s painted himself.
Zuma’s daughter, Dudu Zuma-Sambudla, tweeted that he would present himself to the Nkandla police station. Soon after, Zuma’s foundation tweeted that his legal team would be "studying the judgment" and that Zuma may "address the nation" at some stage.
By all accounts, Zuma has pretty much run out of steam — he will now go to jail. And this will not cause widespread unrest or an uprising — but for one potentially significant exception.
The judgment, and Zuma’s incarceration, will have a real impact in his home province of KwaZulu-Natal. It has been clear for months that provincial party leaders have been trying hard to manage the fallout from Zuma’s legal troubles among his remaining backers in the province, which is also the ANC’s largest.
For instance, provincial party chair Sihle Zikalala is understood to have pushed hard for the ANC to engage with Zuma earlier this year to persuade him not to defy the courts.
The Constitutional Court has ruled decisively against Zuma’s antics, but the political ramifications will be considerable
— What it means:
The province’s push culminated in a meeting between Zuma and the ANC’s top six officials, in which he accused the party of failing to defend him.
The problems Zikalala faces are, first, a possible rebellion among ordinary members who remain loyal to Zuma — or, at least, are sympathetic towards an "old man" whom they don’t want to see locked up in prison.
The second problem is an electoral one. While ANC support declined in KwaZulu-Natal in Zuma’s last years in office, it dropped significantly after his 2018 resignation as president of SA. In the 2019 election, the party’s support in the province shrank by 10 percentage points, while the EFF grew its following there by nine percentage points.
It is enough to give Zikalala, who is also premier, sleepless nights. It’s no surprise that he tweeted on Tuesday that the judgment has "far-reaching implications" for the ANC and that "president Zuma remains one of those who sacrificed a lot for this country".
Zikalala and his provincial executive committee have to tread carefully in the weeks ahead to avoid alienating a sizeable constituency in the province.
But this support for Zuma should not be conflated with support for suspended secretary-general Ace Magashule, who has little or no backing among the provincial leadership of the ANC.
One thing is clear, however — justice has been served in the most unexpected way. Who would have thought Zuma would don orange overalls so soon after his presidency? And to do so for a charge unrelated to the arms deal corruption case that has stalked him for more than a decade.
It marks a victory for the rule of law and — at last — the beginning of a new dawn.
Read the full Constitutional Court judgment below.
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