Behind Thabo Mbeki’s ‘I told you so’

Former president Thabo Mbeki has an elegant — if convoluted — way of saying: "I told you so." And he does so at every possible opportunity.

He may feel entitled to do this. After all, his attempts to block Jacob Zuma’s ascent to the presidency were, in hindsight, justified, even if his methods were flawed.

Speaking in the Eastern Cape this week, Mbeki told of the difficulty of renewing the ANC — the result both of Zuma’s destructive tenure and a policy that drove the "careerism" that took hold of the party on his watch.

The 78-year-old former president has been playing a pivotal role — inside the ANC’s national executive committee, in party structures and in public — in fleshing out the practicalities of how the party can renew itself after its "lost" decade.

He was particularly frank this week, telling the ANC in the Eastern Cape that if the party doesn’t do away with the "faulty" idea of conflating party and government — where leadership positions in the party are intrinsically tied to leadership posts in government — renewal will be difficult.

It’s a position that’s not likely to be popular with the ANC rank and file. Since the policy was adopted at the party’s 2007 Polokwane conference, leadership positions in the party have become a stepping stone to government posts — and the access to resources those positions bring.

It’s how the Guptas could carry out their capture of the state: first capture the party.

Mbeki — at least as far as the Zuma faction is concerned — is no longer the bogeyman he once was. That’s a role that has now been assigned to President Cyril Ramaphosa.

But ahead of the ANC’s Polokwane conference, Zuma claimed Mbeki was manipulating state agencies against him (he now accuses Ramaphosa of doing the same thing).

At the time, Mbeki was looking to block Zuma’s rise by standing for a third term as ANC president. As he was serving his second and constitutionally prescribed final term as SA president, a victory over Zuma would have meant an organisational ANC president in Luthuli House, and an executive state president in the Union Buildings.

But Zuma’s followers were pushing for the ANC to do away with a policy that would allow for two such centres of power, and they won that battle at Polokwane.

In rejecting Mbeki, they also catapulted Zuma into the most powerful position in the party, despite corruption charges and questions about his integrity hanging over his head.

With that, the stage was set for Mbeki’s recall as state president.

Speaking at the ANC’s Eastern Cape provincial executive committee (PEC) meeting this week, Mbeki took aim at two interlinked characteristics that have contributed to the organisational rot in the ANC, from branch to national level: careerism, and the conflation of party and state.

Mbeki noted how former president Nelson Mandela had raised the problem of "careerism" back in 1997, when he referred to individuals using the ANC to advance their own personal and material ambitions.

According to Mbeki, discussions during the PEC meeting suggested the ANC has been unable to eradicate this practice. But if it did not do so, it would be near impossible for the party to renew itself.

Can you renew the ANC with those careerists [in the organisation]? The answer was, no, you can’t. It doesn’t make sense; it wouldn’t make sense

—  Thabo Mbeki

"We have failed to address this matter and therefore when we say renewal … Can you renew the ANC with those careerists [in the organisation]? The answer was, no, you can’t. It doesn’t make sense; it wouldn’t make sense. That’s a major challenge," he said.

"If you have a careerist and you say we can’t renew the ANC with him in our midst, how do you get rid of him? It’s a question you have to answer — it’s a practical, real question."

Mbeki then turned his attention to the second issue: how the collapsing together of the two centres of power promotes this careerism and weakens the ANC.

Again returning to 1997, Mbeki spoke of how a decision had been taken to make "absolutely certain that comrades understand that when you make a commitment to stand [for party positions] … you are making a commitment to be a loyal servant of the ANC. And that’s all. And do away with this expectation that because I am going to be chair of the ANC, therefore I am going to be premier."

The 1997 conference in Mahikeng took the decision that positions in the party and the state were to be kept separate. As a result, in all provinces where the ANC held a majority, the premiers would be chosen not because they were provincial party chairs, but in the same way national ministers were picked for office: by the president of the republic.

He said that this is why he, as president, did not appoint Ace Magashule as Free State premier. Though Magashule had chaired the party in the province since 1992, it was only after the Polokwane conference and Zuma’s ascent to the presidency that Magashule became premier.

(He is now facing corruption charges over a R255m asbestos tender during his tenure, as well as allegations around his involvement in the Gupta-linked Vrede dairy farm project.)

"That was the formal decision of the ANC conference and we implemented that," said Mbeki. "Over a long time we had a number of women [premiers] in the Free State … Ace Magashule was the provincial chair, but it seemed to us that we could not appoint him as premier … So that process that we decided on in Mahikeng meant we could take a decision as to whether we think this person should be the premier."

Mbeki told the gathering that he agreed with Eastern Cape premier (and ANC provincial chair) Oscar Mabuyane that the "business" of simply combining the post of provincial party chair and premier is "wrong".

"What we agreed on in 1997 was changed in Polokwane so that whoever is elected to be president of the ANC is automatically our candidate to be president of the republic, and premiers would be the same. On the basis of a faulty argument, it was called the two centres of power," Mbeki said.

"There is no such thing, it was cooked up in order to achieve particular objectives. I am mentioning these colleagues to indicate some of the challenges that we are going to face."

He was pleased that the dominant view in the Eastern Cape was that the roles should remain distinct. "If you are chair of the party that’s fine; if you are premier, you are premier, that’s fine. But don’t mix them up."

In Mbeki’s view, this is a key challenge facing the party: while the Eastern Cape may agree that the party should return to its 1997 position, where party and state posts are kept discrete, other provinces may not.

"That is the challenge for this renewal," he said. "Those are the complications that are going to stand in our way."

Mbeki’s comments and sentiment in the Eastern Cape indicate a shift in the party’s thinking around the two centres of power. If the separation of party and state were to take root as a widely held view, it would go a long way towards curbing careerism in the ANC. It would also very likely allow the party to get rid of those in its ranks who are merely there to obtain government positions and largesse.

But the practice is so embedded, and the contest for posts so fierce, that the party’s rank and file — as well as leaders at regional, provincial and national level — are unlikely to agree to such a profound change.

This may result in the ANC’s attempt at renewal falling flat.