Inside the ANC’s 2022 ‘youth plan’

Is it time for a new-look ANC? An update on the 1912 version? Some leaders in the party seem to believe so. In the ANC, power rests in the party structures — in the regional bodies and, significantly, the provincial ones. It is here that change may be brewing.

The FM understands that there are moves afoot to harness the power of the regions and provinces to shake up the leadership of the party. The idea, it seems, is to "refresh" the ANC by elevating younger leaders from the provinces to build a "new ANC" at its 2022 elective conference.

If that’s successful, it’s likely that a vastly different ANC will emerge, with most of the current crop of leaders retiring. There are, however, some plans around continuity: President Cyril Ramaphosa, for example, is to remain at the helm of the party — provided he begins to play a more decisive, courageous role.

This push to rejuvenate the upper echelons of the ANC is being driven by provincial leaders across SA. Significant talks towards accomplishing the plan have taken place and the idea is being mooted at branch level, say various provincial sources, speaking to the FM on condition of anonymity.

Ramaphosa’s first term as ANC president comes to an end next year. With that, there’s increasing noise about the so-called radical economic transformation (RET) faction trying to weaken him at the ANC’s national general council (NGC) this year, to prevent him being elected for a second term.

The RET group also has designs on the presidency — with ANC national executive committee member Lindiwe Sisulu its current favourite for the post, with Magashule remaining on as secretary-general — despite his weaknesses and legal woes.

This week’s vote in the National Assembly, on setting up a committee to inquire into the fitness of public protector Busisiwe Mkhwebane to hold office, offered a clear sign that Magashule and his RET brigade is not something Ramaphosa needs to fear.

The vote took place after an independent panel, set up by parliament, found there was prima facie evidence that Mkhwebane (seen to be doing the bidding of the RET faction linked to ex-president Jacob Zuma) is incompetent and, worse, guilty of misconduct.

The Constitutional Court on Tuesday threw out a bid brought by Mkhwebane to halt the parliamentary process, which is edging dangerously towards her eventual removal.

Magashule came out guns blazing in last week’s Sunday Times, declaring that the ANC caucus would not be voting with the "enemy" — in this case the DA — in favour of a committee looking into Mkhwebane’s removal.

Just days later, however, the office of the ANC chief whip in parliament issued a terse statement saying no-one should speak on its behalf, and that it would see through the process.

This got known RET supporters riled up, with Supra Mahumapelo and Mervyn Dirks declaring that they would not be voting in line with the chief whip’s instructions. Meanwhile, MP Kebby Maphatsoe wrote to Magashule informing him that he would not be participating in Tuesday’s vote, and asking for protection from the secretary-general’s office for any consequence arising from his decision not to toe the caucus line.

But it was all to no avail. Top officials from ANC headquarters were dispatched to Cape Town to ensure that the caucus voted in favour of the process to institute the inquiry. And ANC chair Gwede Mantashe and treasurer-general Paul Mashatile addressed a special meeting of the caucus ahead of the vote, to deliver the party line.

Meanwhile, Magashule was out of sight — tucked away in KwaZulu-Natal, visiting the home of the deceased Zulu monarch King Goodwill Zwelithini.

His visit coincided with that of the EFF, which is aligning itself closely with the ANC’s RET faction.

The smaller party has obtained Magashule’s support in the ongoing student protests, and has visited the don of the RET grouping, Zuma. It’s also fighting for the courts to unseal the bank statements detailing donations to Ramaphosa’s 2017 campaign for the ANC presidency. (The court case in that matter was set down for Tuesday and Wednesday.)

There’s been major criticism of Magashule’s leadership of the party, as he tries to run Luthuli House as he did the ANC in the Free State.

Over the weekend, his office aide and main RET lieutenant, Carl Niehaus, released a paper on the faction’s policy push at the upcoming NGC, as well as a statement indicating that the faction is seeking to grow its support in ANC structures.

But it’s unlikely to gain much traction. In parliament, for example, the ANC’s endorsement of the process to remove Mkhwebane was politically telling, showing that Magashule doesn’t hold nearly as much sway as he portrays — particularly considering that the ANC’s parliamentary caucus had supposedly been packed with RET lackeys.

It’s clear that discussions on the ANC’s next election race have started, but it’s still too early to pinpoint any grouping on the ascent.

The party also has a long road to travel before it gets to the national elective conference. At least five provinces have to hold elective conferences, and about 40 of about 53 regions have to elect new leaders — as do about 90% of the party’s branches, insiders tell the FM.

The "youth ticket" is the most interesting so far. It won’t allow party control to be returned to those facing corruption allegations and charges. Instead, it proposes retaining Ramaphosa, with Mashatile as his deputy. KwaZulu-Natal chair Sihle Zikalala has been mooted as secretary-general or the national chair, and Eastern Cape premier and party chair Oscar Mabuyane may also find his way into the top six.

This would be a huge shift from the past. Both Zikalala and Mabuyane have only really served one term as chair of their respective provinces. Magashule headed the ANC in the Free State for 25 years before ascending to national politics in 2017.

What is perhaps more interesting is who will be left off the youth slate.

Sources tell the FM that, barring Ramaphosa and Mashatile, no other current top six leader will return if the youth slate has its way. That would mean deputy president David Mabuza, Mantashe, Magashule and deputy secretary-general Jessie Duarte would all be history.

The plan would be for this "new ANC" to consolidate the party’s base — the 10-million or so South Africans who voted for the ANC in 2019 — in the absence of any of the tainted leaders now in office.

But there’s still 21 months before crunch time. And the RET grouping — as well as leaders with presidential ambitions, such as Sisulu — will use that time to push their factions to the top.

Ramaphosa’s backers may also have very different plans for their 2022 lineup, though there’s little indication that any such discussions are taking place at present.

A lot may still happen. But it’s clear that all the RET noise in the public domain is drowning out the much quieter background manoeuvring within the governing party.