The Eastern Cape city of Gqeberha (Port Elizabeth) is suffering one of the worst droughts in its history. At current rates, its main dams will fall below the 10% level in about two to three months. But though this spells disaster for farmers and those who have no other water sources, the city is adamant it is not facing a Day Zero, when taps will run dry.
According to the Gqeberha office of the SA Weather Service, if total dam levels in the Algoa system continue to drop at a rate of 0.6 percentage points a week, as they did between February 22 and March 1, they will fall collectively below the 10% level as early as May 17.
This can only be averted if there is more than 150mm of rain during March or April — something that has occurred only 3% of the time in March in the past 120 years, and never in April.
In short, the metro’s dams are fast approaching the point where further extraction will be impossible.
One of the province’s largest dams, Kouga, has already dropped to a record low of just 6.33% and is in danger of running dry for the first time. If it does, it will be game over for many farmers in the Gamtoos River Valley.
The drought is also severely affecting farming in the Sarah Baartman, Chris Hani and Amathole districts, says the DA. The party last week called on premier Oscar Mabuyane to declare the Eastern Cape a drought disaster area so that it can access relief funding from the national government.
If there were no other water sources available to the Nelson Mandela Bay metro, it would likely hit Day Zero in the next two to three months. Fortunately, only three of its four main catchment areas have been affected by the drought.
The metro has switched most of its supply to the Gariep catchment system. The Gariep Dam lies on the Orange River in the Free State, on the border with the Eastern Cape. It feeds water to the metro via the 82.8km Orange-Fish irrigation tunnel. According to the metro, the Gariep Dam is now supplying 180Ml of water a day, satisfying 60% of Gqeberha’s water needs.
"Even with all the other catchments running dry, the metro will still have at least over 180Ml a day within its system for distribution," says a metro spokesperson. "The worst is that we can have intermittent supply within metro suburbs, [but] Day Zero for the city will not be reached."
Asked if "intermittent supply" suggests residents would experience days or hours without water, he says this means "a couple of hours off per day". However, he adds: "We will endeavour to prevent this at all costs, as this would have disastrous consequences for the local economy."
Nelson Mandela Bay mayor Nqaba Bhanga, who was confirmed in the post in January after a year-long tussle for the seat, is adamant that the metro has a plan to alleviate the water crisis.
"We can no longer treat the water situation as normal. It needs drastic measures to save our livelihoods," says Bhanga, who is also the DA’s provincial leader. "The eventuality of having dry taps has huge repercussions for the economy and our desperate need for the creation of jobs. We need to act now before it is too late."
The plan will involve reducing the city’s water consumption as well as finding new sources of water supply.
Under previous DA mayor Athol Trollip, the metro reduced its water consumption by 25% over two years, troughing at 253Ml a day by mid-2018.
However, after Trollip was unseated in 2018, consumption climbed steadily. For the past two years, the city has exceeded its 268Ml a day maximum water allocation. At present, it’s consuming just over 300Ml a day.
To cut consumption by 32Ml a day, Bhanga’s priority is to stem leaks, which account for at least 25% of the city’s water loss. Since April 2020, almost 28,000 leaks have been repaired, but nearly 2,000 remain.
More controversial is the decision to fit water restricters to residents’ water meters, targeting big users who fail to comply with warning notices. Those who use more than 15kl a month will have their water cut off.
These steps are being taken in conjunction with an awareness campaign to educate communities about the severity of the water crisis. But no Day Zero messaging will be used, according to the mayor’s office.
"We can’t use a term which would be factually incorrect," says a spokesperson. "The metro can’t reach Day Zero when more than 60% of our water supply remains as secure as it can be."
That may be technically correct, but the water level is now so low in Gqeberha’s Impofu Dam that a barge will be floated out to the deeper water in the middle so that the last bit of stranded storage can be accessed.
Over the next three to 24 months, the metro plans to add over 110Ml a day to the water system by digging boreholes (an additional 30Ml a day, including Coegakop); upgrading the Nooitgedacht water treatment works near Addo to enable it to extract 210Ml a day from the Gariep Dam; building a desalination plant at the Coega special economic zone (15Ml a day); and maximising the Grassridge temporary water treatment works (35Ml a day). "If all of these plans can be implemented, I’m sure it is clear for everyone that the narrative of Day Zero is not a reality for this city," says Bhanga.
However, farmers on the frontline are beginning to lose hope. Among the most vulnerable are 132 dairy, produce and citrus farmers in the Gamtoos River Valley.
After four years of drought, the valuable farming area is in dire straits.
It gets its only water from the Kouga Dam, which is just 6.33% full. At current usage rates it will take 55.5 days to fall to the 3% level, after which further water cannot be extracted.
Since July 2020, farmers’ water allocations have been cut by 80%.
In peril is a citrus crop that generates R2bn annually, and a further R500m of fresh produce. The valley also employs more than 10,000 seasonal workers and 5,500 permanent farm labourers.
Some citrus farmers are spending a fortune bringing in water tankers to keep their orchards alive during the March harvesting period, while dairy and cattle farmers are either selling off their livestock or moving their herds to rented grazing elsewhere.
Unable to plant fresh produce, some farmers have resorted to renting land in far-flung towns.
"We’ve experienced drought before, but not like this," says citrus farmer Khaya Katoo. "I know some farmers whose water has been cut off because they’ve used up their allocations, and workers who’ve been laid off or are working reduced hours. People are extremely worried."
Some farmers have spent millions sinking boreholes, but the water is either too acidic or brackish and needs to be mixed with dam water to be suitable for irrigation.
"I can bring in the March harvest, but without water we could lose the other citrus harvests over the rest of the year," explains Katoo. "If you lose just one harvest, how will you repay the bank, spray the trees, pay the workers and Eskom? It’s game over. If it doesn’t rain it means we’re bankrupt."
Noel le Roux supplies produce to leading retailers nationwide. To retain shelf space with the grocery chains, he’s hired ground as far afield as Steynsburg, more than 350km away, where there is plenty of water to plant fresh produce. However, this is not a sustainable solution, as it doubles his transport costs.
"One of the reasons we’re planting all over the place is because we’ve got lots of labour that’s been with us for longer than 10 years and we don’t want to lose those we have a long-term relationship with," says Le Roux, "We’re trying our utmost to keep our permanent workforce."
But he warns that thousands of people will go hungry if the Kouga Dam runs dry. "Then it’s total shutdown," he says. "Most farms [in the Gamtoos River Valley] will close down."
According to Rienette Colesky, CEO of the Gamtoos Irrigation Board, which oversees the dam’s water distribution, the situation has created "a sense of hopelessness".
But she stresses that there is no guilty party — just an abnormally bad drought.
"The metro has had its political and procurement challenges but from the beginning, when it became a real crisis, we’ve all been accountable and [have] pulled together," she says.
Nor does the metro exceed the amount of water it’s entitled to. The Nelson Mandela Bay and Kouga municipalities’ drawings from the Kouga Dam have been curbed by 70% and 30% respectively, and both are honouring these restrictions. The metro has also taken a 70% cut from the Loerie Dam.
Though normal to above-normal rainfall has been predicted for the area this winter, Gqeberha weather office spokesperson Garth Sampson says only intensely heavy rains could make a meaningful difference at this stage.
The problem is that the region relies on cut-off lows that deposit copious amounts of rain in a short period, causing maximum runoff and filling the dams. Even above-normal rainfall is unlikely to do the trick. The veld may turn green, Sampson explains, but the dams will remain empty as there will not be enough runoff.
Good rains would also not mean that water conservation efforts can end.
"The water crisis will never be over in this region," says Sampson. "Water is a limited and finite resource, and the demand is constantly increasing … Conserving water must become a way of life for us."
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