When national government sneezes, Gauteng catches a cold, says premier David Makhura. Over the past five years national government not only sneezed but became seriously ill, with a debilitating impact on the province’s economy and the provincial government’s ability to deliver.
Gauteng contributed just over a third of SA’s economic output in 2016, and according to a Statistics SA study released last month, the province’s economy is roughly the same size as that of Morocco. In 2016, its economy was the seventh largest in Africa, surpassing Kenya and Tanzania.
No wonder it will be hotly contested in the elections next year, particularly after the DA seized the two biggest-budget cities from the ANC in the 2016 local elections.
Makhura, who has been at the helm of the province since 2014, has gone through a great deal of turbulence since then, but has also registered successes that have been hailed by business and acknowledged by opposition parties. His Ntirhisano, or listening campaign, in which he traverses the province to listen to communities, has had a far-reaching impact on the lives of ordinary citizens.
Makhura can point to year-on-year improvements in audit outcomes over the past four years, the solid working relationship he has built with business, and his decisiveness on land issues.
But will these be enough to achieve an outright win for the ANC next year?
In an interview with the FM reflecting on his term so far, Makhura refers to the tenure of former premier Mbhazima Shilowa, during the Thabo Mbeki presidency, as Gauteng’s "glory years".
We were doing well, until we were hit by that deadly reshuffle
— David Makhura
Hospitals and clinics were built at a rapid rate, the Gautrain project was launched and jobs were created.
Makhura says that when he took office in 2014, he hoped to ensure more of the same. Conditions were not ideal — there were growing allegations of corruption at a national level and increasing dissatisfaction with the then president Jacob Zuma.
The anti-Zuma stance of the ANC’s provincial chair, Paul Mashatile, meant there was little support for Gauteng from the party or government at a national level. Indeed, Mashatile and Makhura lived in perpetual anxiety that the national ANC would dissolve the provincial structure.
But Makhura says he made progress anyway: service delivery protests declined, business bought into his vision and there was a slight increase in job creation. Under Shilowa motor vehicle manufacturing had come to Gauteng and Makhura says he moved to boost it further.
But it all came to a screeching halt in December 2015. "We were doing well, until we were hit by that deadly reshuffle," he says.
With state capture the order of the day, Zuma axed finance minister Nhlanhla Nene and replaced him with David Des van Rooyen. Even though Van Rooyen lasted little more than a weekend before making way for Pravin Gordhan, the blood-letting continued. Makhura recalls how business simply began "pulling out their money".
Gauteng voters punished the ANC brutally in 2016 — it lost Johannesburg and Tshwane and held onto Ekurhuleni by the skin of its teeth. Makhura says this was another blow to his administration — he now governs a province where the largest cities are run by the opposition, so there is no longer a seamless flow from provincial policy decisions to implementation at ground level. Opposition-led cities are now the middlemen between him and the electorate.
Political analyst Dawie Scholtz says that the 2016 election results indicate the ANC will again win the biggest share of the vote in Gauteng next year, but could slip to around 46% or 47%. It would have to govern in a coalition or not at all. The DA’s support could swell to the high 30s and the EFF should do better than the 10% it won in 2016, Scholtz says.
But he notes much has changed since 2016, not least the replacement of Zuma by president Cyril Ramaphosa. Zuma had little support from urban voters, Scholtz says, which had a huge impact on the Gauteng results.
There are also indications that Zuma dealt a lasting blow to confidence in the ANC among urban voters, resulting in a loss of support that will not quickly be reversed.
Scholtz says the ANC gained a huge 10 percentage points in a by-election in Soweto in March, which could indicate a switch in voter sentiment. But not too much should be read into a single, low-turnout result in one ward, he cautions.
Indications are that the ANC could fail to win 50% in Gauteng and will have to govern in a coalition, or not at all
— What it means
Ramaphosa has a much higher urban approval rating than Zuma.
Another factor working in the ANC’s favour is the DA’s current "messaging and strategic cul de sac", Scholtz says.
And Ramaphosa is neutralising the EFF with his policy positions on land, which could potentially lead to EFF voters returning to the ANC.
Scholtz says the ANC will do better next year than in 2016, but there is no guarantee that it will crack the 50% barrier in Gauteng.
The ANC itself has commissioned surveys, to be conducted next month, to try to predict its performance in the polls next year, particularly in Gauteng.
What could potentially trip up the ANC in Gauteng, once again, is national politics. Ramaphosa’s performance is critical, possibly more so than Makhura’s, to give the party a better shot.
DA leader Mmusi Maimane has made it clear that Gauteng is in his sights. Closing the party’s elective conference last month, he said: "Next year, we can bring change to Gauteng. Let’s visit every house, knock on every door, speak to every voter.
"Let’s win this province in 2019. We will win because we are focused on the real struggles of our people, and not on greed and the comfort of power."
The DA is pushing hard, but last week lost a motion of no confidence in Makhura in the provincial legislature.
EFF leader Julius Malema says the DA would stand a better chance of winning Gauteng if Johannesburg mayor Herman Mashaba were its candidate for premier.
But insiders say a powerful bloc in the party is set on nominating the party’s policy chief, Gwen Ngwenya, as the candidate.
DA Gauteng MPL Magashule Gana has also thrown his hat into the ring.
For the ANC, Ramaphosa will be a key face in its campaign, as will Makhura.
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