The turmoil in the ANC is the culmination of a host of factors, but topping the list is the ferocious battle by the beneficiaries of state capture to hold onto their spoils — and stave off probable jail terms.
The spate of political killings in KwaZulu-Natal is of deep concern for ANC leaders, with president Cyril Ramaphosa visiting the family of a slain party member on Monday and calling for calm in the now unstable province.
An ANC activist and an IFP councillor were killed over the weekend in separate incidents, adding to the rapidly growing list of political murders in the province.
Ramaphosa met leaders in the province this week as the heads of five ANC regions there threatened to take the party to court to halt upcoming elective conferences.
The faction led by Sihle Zikalala, which is loyal to former president Jacob Zuma, is fighting to return to the leadership posts held until a court order in September last year dissolved the provincial executive committee (PEC). The PEC, of which Zikalala was chair, was granted leave to appeal against that ruling.
Zikalala’s faction has thus far won all regional elective conferences in the province, implying that the faction aligned to Ramaphosa is on the back foot. His key allies in the province have been occupied elsewhere; Senzo Mchunu is now deployed to Luthuli House and Bheki Cele and Zweli Mkhize have been settling into posts as cabinet ministers.
A letter from ANC secretary-general Ace Magashule to structures last week said preparations for regional conferences in KwaZulu-Natal were "on track".
He instructed the provincial task team "to immediately start a process to resolve the issues of membership authenticity and gatekeeping" that led to the September court order.
Magashule’s letter said that "threats of violence" in the Lower South Coast, Harry Gwala, Moses Mabhida and Abaqulusi regions that had been raised in meetings with the national working committee should be dealt with before the regional conferences were held.
The rival ANC groups fighting running battles in KwaZulu-Natal, in the courts and elsewhere, have coalesced into factions aligned with Zuma or Ramaphosa.
The Zuma faction in particular sees the power struggle as a life-or-death battle to retain what resources they still control so they can try to replace Ramaphosa as party president with their own candidate.
In the equally troubled North West, premier Supra Mahumapelo quickly backtracked on his promised resignation when he realised he would be replaced not by one of his own loyalists but by someone aligned with Ramaphosa.
Mahumapelo has systematically ensured that key municipalities — the nerve centres of state capture — were under the control of his allies.
"The Madibeng municipality is emblematic of the capture process, involving the raw extraction of resources for themselves and their friends ... their fight to hold onto power is not only to enjoy the spoils but mainly to keep themselves out of orange uniforms," said a senior ANC national executive committee (NEC) member.
The latest controversy in Madibeng involves reports of a R1bn lease deal for municipal vehicles, including BMWs and Mercedes-Benzes for top officials.
The national government has placed the North West government under administration, and is set to take over total control of key departments such as the provincial treasury. Once this has been achieved, it will be a matter of time before the full extent of the rot is exposed.
The noose is tightening around Mahumapelo but he remains defiant, mobilising his backers to march in his support last week. The ANC’s national working committee (NWC) will meet on Monday to discuss the situation in the province.
A report on government’s work and on discussions between Mahumapelo and ANC officials will be tabled at the meeting. The NWC will then determine how to proceed and make a recommendation to the NEC, which sits at the end of the month.
A call for the North West PEC to be dissolved is likely to be discussed at the NEC meeting. This is after the PEC directed Mahumapelo — who is also the committee’s chair — to withdraw his resignation and take a leave of absence instead.
The PEC also instructed him to appoint an acting premier, resulting in Wendy Nelson — a close Mahumapelo ally — getting the post. The EFF is approaching the courts to have her appointment declared illegal.
Mahumapelo’s office went into overdrive last week to defend Nelson after it was widely reported that she was among the accused in a case brought against the provincial government over its handling of the Gupta-linked Mediosa contract.
As the ANC puts out fires in its structures, Ramaphosa and his allies will be tested to the limit. The beneficiaries of state capture and corruption are hanging on for dear life.
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