The battle in the ANC over North West premier Supra Mahumapelo and the lingering support for former president Jacob Zuma that is rendering KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) unstable together mark the first big test for president Cyril Ramaphosa ahead of the 2019 national elections.
The battle to remove Mahumapelo erupted into protests in the provincial capital Mahikeng last week, resulting in at least two deaths and millions of rands in damages to government and private property.
Ramaphosa is already navigating a tense political situation in KZN, the province with the biggest ANC membership.
The party in that province is deeply divided, and a large section of it is agitating against the removal and charging of Zuma. Zuma backers in KZN have reportedly threatened to vote for the ANC at provincial level and another party nationally in the 2019 election to "punish" Ramaphosa for axing Zuma.
The party’s national working committee on Monday discussed Mahumapelo’s fate — but he is likely to prove difficult to dislodge immediately.
The challenge for Ramaphosa, then, is how to navigate the political situation in the province while ensuring that the ANC does not bleed further in the 2019 polls.
The province has traditionally been a stronghold for the ANC, but support has slipped steadily from its 2009 highs.
In the 2009 election the ANC received 73.8% in the North West — markedly higher than the party’s national support, which stood at 65.9%.
This performance was pretty much mirrored in the 2011 local election, in which the ANC received 74.9% in the North West.
The slide to 67% in the province in the 2014 election was dramatic.
But it did not stop there. In the 2016 local government election, the ANC in the province obtained an overall tally of 59% — a staggering 15% drop from the previous local government election.
Electorally, then, it is clear that under Mahumapelo the ANC is facing a clear and present risk to its support in the province.
Generally, the trend in local elections is mirrored in national polls, implying that the ANC in the province is already on a huge downward spiral.
A misstep in handling calls for Mahumapelo’s removal will add to the deep unhappiness within the electorate, which is already manifesting in the party’s falling support in the province.
A motion of no confidence in Mahumapelo has been withdrawn by the EFF, which is heading to court to ensure that such a vote can be held through a secret ballot.
The party’s motivation for this is to provide protection for ANC members of the provincial legislature who want Mahumapelo removed. The EFF claims there is sufficient dissent in the ANC caucus to remove the premier.
Allegations of corruption, patronage and maladministration have dogged Mahumapelo for years. But in the past he enjoyed political protection from the highest level — Zuma. He has also been unapologetic about his support for the Guptas, and the Sunday Times this week reported that he allegedly gave Zuma a R1.5m herd of cattle as a gift, paid for with taxpayers’ money.
Now his opponents — and there are many inside the ANC, in the alliance and among business and civil society in the province — have sensed the shift in the country’s political mood and are closing in.
In the end, it will boil down to whether Ramaphosa can navigate the deep divisions in his own party and secure an outcome that will satisfy the electorate.
The ANC has not been successful at this in the past, having shed electoral support since 2009. The erosion accelerated with each election it fought under Zuma. Yet it would not act against him, even after dropping below the psychological barrier of 60% — to win a 55.6% share of national support — in the 2016 election.
With the divisions in KZN and the crisis in North West, it is clear that Ramaphosa’s biggest opponent in the upcoming polls is his own party.
The Zuma group — those opposed to Ramaphosa’s leadership — have repeatedly placed their own agenda above that of the party. They will have little interest in resolving the deep issues to bolster the ANC at the polls. In fact, it would be in their interests to see the party’s support further eroded, to advance their agenda of removing Ramaphosa before his term is up.
There are already rumblings in this group for a national general council to be called to push for an early elective conference to remove him.
Aside from the challenges of governing a country nearly torn apart by nine years of mismanagement and allegations of corruption and state capture, Ramaphosa also faces an uphill battle against the deeply factional party over which he now presides.
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