The fate of municipalities across the country rests on the outcome of the local government elections in November. Should the instability of fragile, destructive coalitions continue, the decline across small towns and economically significant cities will continue.
Joburg has had to endure eight mayors since the 2021 election, due to opportunistic, extractive coalitions largely anchored by the ANC and the EFF, instead of solid governance pacts focusing on sound administrative management and service delivery.
The city, with a budget larger than many small African countries, is now in crisis. It is on the brink of financial collapse, with Eskom threatening to cut power rotationally over the failure of the metro authorities (not of the residents) to settle their R5bn overdue account.
As things stand, six months before the election, there seems little chance the results will produce stability. Polls show a continuing decline in support for larger parties and indicate further fragmentation of the vote, which is being spread across an increasing number of tiny opposition parties.
“If I look at the coalition behaviour of political parties and the particular volatility in areas such as the Garden Route, I cannot see it stabilising,” says Wits University honorary professor Susan Booysen. She is also lead researcher on the Coalitions Barometer, initially run by the Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection.
“Elections give new parameters and new baselines in terms of support levels and support trends,” says Booysen, “but then come the backroom manoeuvres that are so important to the stability of those coalitions. We have been saying, get coalition agreements and formalise things. But we know by now that coalition agreements are only good until the next political opportunity arises.”
Booysen says proposed legislation that would formalise coalition agreements is unlikely to be enacted before the November 4 election.
But this week, presenting his budget vote in parliament, co-operative governance & traditional affairs (Cogta) minister Velenkosini Hlabisa told MPs he is confident the legislation to stabilise coalitions will be passed before the polls.
Amendments to the Municipal Systems Amendment Act, known as the coalitions bill, are currently with state law advisers and are set to be presented to the cabinet in June, before going to parliament.
Cogta deputy minister Dickson Masemola says: “This coalitions bill is very transformative. It’s the primary legislation to contribute to the stabilisation of governance at the municipal level.”
The most recent iteration of the legislation includes provisions for signed formal coalition agreements and the introduction of a 1% threshold for seats at local government level — which could significantly diminish the influence of smaller parties.
Apart from wielding disproportionate influence, smaller parties have had a more insidious impact. Many hold extreme views, increasingly pulling larger parties away from the centre. In Gauteng, the centre-left ANC has been pulled further left by its frequent coalition partner, the EFF.
A similar influence has been exerted on the centre-right DA by the FF Plus. The Patriotic Alliance (PA), unpredictable in policy terms, is another party rising rapidly across the Western Cape.
The ANC and the DA are the two parties whose support is crucial to get the legislation across the line ahead of the polls. They agree mostly on the proposed amendments, except for one important issue, and neither appears ready to shift its stance.
We probably know very clearly that is not going to happen. It’s not the way they work at local government level
— Susan Booysen
The ANC agreed at its 2022 national conference on the need to have executive committees in local government, replacing the system in most councils (eThekwini is the exception) of an executive mayor. It aims to convert all hung councils to executive committees drawing on all parties, to ensure that administration does not collapse with every coalition manoeuvre.
However, the DA argues that an executive committee would dilute the power of the party that wins the largest share of the vote (as the DA seems likely to do in Joburg). The DA argues it would force ideologically incompatible parties into the same municipal cabinet, resulting in internal paralysis, a lack of cohesion and little accountability.
This will be the battle between the two key GNU partners when the legislation comes to the cabinet next month. Smaller parties in the GNU are likely to side with the ANC, as an executive committee system would virtually guarantee them a seat at the main table.
Should the ANC and the DA fail to reach agreement on the legislation, it will not be passed, despite Masemola saying the matter will be processed through the “clearing house” or dispute resolution body for the GNU, led by Deputy President Paul Mashatile.
Legislation aside, the other main shift in politics since the messy 2021 local election has been the advent of the GNU, born of the 2024 national election.
Booysen does not think that the national coalition will have any bearing locally, even though it has immense potential to stabilise local government if the two largest parties were to agree to work together.
“We probably know very clearly that is not going to happen. It’s not the way they work at local government level,” she says.
Instead, the ANC has tended towards working with smaller opposition parties locally, such as the EFF in Gauteng and the Northern Cape, and it may have to look at working with former president Jacob Zuma’s MK Party in KwaZulu-Natal after the election.
“Locally, it is possible for almost any set of political parties to co-operate,” says Booysen. “I’ve taken a detailed look at the by-election trends. If we look, for example, at how MK is coming through the ranks, it’s won a handful of by-elections, but those wards do not reflect its presence over a wide geographical area. It is going to be a new presence in coalitions.” MK did not exist when the 2021 elections were held.
The PA, given its traction in the Western Cape, is also set to shift the dynamic, joining the EFF and MK as kingmakers in various parts of the country.
Booysen adds that coalitions are not the only problem at local level. The calibre of councillors is also a huge challenge, made worse by opportunistic switching.
There has been a recent trend for the PA and other small parties to induce popular councillors from the DA and the ANC to defect. Due to street-level support for such individuals, they then win the by-election triggered by their resignation from the bigger party.
These machinations can trigger perpetual instability. The entire five-year period between nationwide elections is littered with power plays by political parties, to the detriment of service delivery.
“Motivations for power definitely run stronger than concerted motivation for service delivery. Community improvement is just a prop to get better representation and to consolidate power,” Booysen says.
So what is the answer for frustrated residents and ratepayers?
“I truly think it is only citizen activism, almost doing the work for the councils and insisting on things getting done,” Booysen says. “That kind of politics, despite citizens already paying the taxes and participating in elections, could rescue local government from itself.”
Booysen’s point recalls a small town in North West, Sannieshof, that made headlines in the late 2000s when citizens began withholding rates and took over the running of the town.
Over the years, more communities have been standing up and taking control of elements of administration of their towns — from retired military veterans in Springs to the Afrikaans business association Sakeliga taking over selected services in the troubled North West town of Ditsobotla.
The most dramatic example was when the Kgetlengrivier Concerned Citizens group approached the courts over the sewage spilling into two rivers in Koster and Swartruggens in North West. In December 2020, the high court in Mahikeng ordered the municipality to immediately stop discharging sewage into the Koster river and address the pollution it had caused. The court also authorised the citizens group to employ experts to monitor the river, and charge the municipality. It ordered that the city manager be jailed for 90 days if the situation was not addressed.
Citizens can expect to remain on duty. The maths of proportional representation elections means that, in the absence of the proposed legislation, smaller parties will continue to call the shots in many municipalities.
That should push the DA and the ANC to replicate at local level their co-operation in the GNU. It also remains to be seen whether voters will see that their daily lives are more likely to be improved if they cease voting for splinter parties. If the status quo remains, the November 4 election is likely to leave citizens in the same position for the next five years: on their own.
Marrian is a political analyst at the Bureau for Economic Research
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