Safe as houses? Not lately. The saying no doubt rings hollow for many South Africans who haven’t made a cent on residential bricks and mortar in the past five years.
Amid crumbling municipal infrastructure and poor service delivery, Joburg homeowners have been particularly hard hit by falling sales and prices as buyers have fled to the Western Cape. Tshwane and eThekwini residents have faced similar woes.
Add to the equation a 475 basis point (bp) interest rate hike between November 2021 and September 2024 and it’s not difficult to see why your home hasn’t exactly been a store of wealth.
Cape Town property owners have, of course, been spared. In the past five years, house prices surged by an average 43%, while Joburg, Tshwane and eThekwini delivered less than 14%, according to numbers from Stats SA and data analytics group Lightstone.
The performance gap is even more evident in the luxury market, with demand for big-ticket homes along Cape Town’s swish Atlantic seaboard, at the V&A Waterfront and in the wealth hubs of Constantia and Bishopscourt reaching fresh highs this year. From January to November, a record 190 properties changed hands for more than R20m apiece — including 22 sales at R50m-plus — raking in a combined R6.63bn. That’s up from last year’s tally of 144 and represents a colossal 47% increase on 2024’s value of R4.43bn, figures from Seeff Property Group and Western Cape property sales database PropStats show.
Seeff chair Samuel Seeff tells the FM that Cape Town’s 190 R20m-plus transactions this year contrast with only nine such sales in Sandton, highlighting “Cape Town’s dominance in South Africa’s high-end property market”. Back in 2019, only 49 Cape Town properties were sold for more than R20m (see table).
In addition, four Cape Town sales clocked more than R100m this year, against none in 2024.
The FM believes the Grammy-winning DJ Black Coffee (Nkosinathi Maphumulo) forked out a staggering R157m — in cash no less — for a five-level Stefan Antoni-designed mansion on Clifton’s exclusive Nettleton Road, the country’s most expensive street.
The house, perched high against the slopes of Lion’s Head with uninterrupted ocean views, fetched the highest price for a residential property in South Africa this year. A few metres down the drag, also in Nettleton Road, Pam Golding Properties (PGP) sold two adjacent vacant plots spanning 2,700m² to a Spanish buyer for an equally eye-watering R170m.
The rest of the R50m-plus sales were mostly in Camps Bay, Bantry Bay, Constantia and Bishopscourt. Many of them went to buyers from Germany, the UK, the US, Switzerland and Türkiye.
Trophy home sales in Cape Town have been supported by offshore investors looking to escape geopolitical tensions in Europe, the Middle East and the US.
A relatively weak rand has no doubt also helped. Improved post-election sentiment, the continued absence of load-shedding and higher GDP growth prospects have further bolstered Cape Town’s status as a global property investment hotspot.
Ross Levin, licensee for Seeff Atlantic Seaboard, notes that about 27% of all residential sales (in value terms) on the Atlantic seaboard and in the city bowl went to offshore buyers this year.
However, the latest Lightstone figures show that foreigners account for less than 5% of total residential sales across South Africa.
Still, the post-pandemic return of international buyers to the Western Cape has helped to lift the average house price way above those in the other metros.
The latest figures from Re/Max Southern Africa show that Western Cape homebuyers are now paying R3.12m on average, 70%-110% more than their counterparts in KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng, where the average price sits at R1.85m and R1.47m respectively.
The good news is that the gap may begin to shrink within the next year or two, as the rest of South Africa’s housing market gears up for a revival. The latest housing data suggests that the 150bp rate cuts since September last year have already lifted sales volumes and prices — even in Joburg.
Granted, the recovery is still tentative and the Reserve Bank’s decision to delay interest rate cuts in both March and September probably dampened homebuyer exuberance.
Lightstone figures nevertheless show that the number of residential sales registered in the deeds office rose a decent 11% in the third quarter year on year to about 61,500. That’s still some way below the 70,000-77,000 quarterly averages recorded during 2021/2022’s mini housing boom, but it’s 32% up on the 10-year low of 47,000 in the first quarter of this year (see graph).
Mortgage originator BetterBond reports a 30% year-on-year increase in mortgage applications in the third quarter. Bradd Bendall, BetterBond’s national head of sales, says Joburg has seen a particularly strong uptick in the third quarter, with volumes rising 38%.
Bendall says many prospective homebuyers are sitting on the sidelines, waiting for further rate cuts before taking the plunge. He says November’s 25bp cut, which brings banks’ prime rate to 10.25% — still well ahead of 2020/2021’s near 50-year low of 7% — is likely to be the catalyst many were waiting for.
FNB senior economist Siphamandla Mkhwanazi agrees that homebuyer sentiment is on the mend. He says the National Treasury’s recent adoption of a 3% inflation target should also help foster a more stable economic environment, which bodes well for further rate cuts into 2026 and 2027. But Mkhwanazi doesn’t expect any fireworks. South Africa’s recovery will be gradual, he says.
PGP CEO Andrew Golding has a similar view. He says rate cuts typically take two to three months to translate into visible market movement. He expects housing activity (outside the Western Cape) to start picking up notably only from the second quarter of 2026.
But Golding adds that there’s already been rising activity in Joburg in recent months. PGP’s latest house price index shows Gauteng house prices have turned the corner and are back in growth territory, rising 1.8% year on year from January to October. That comes after Gauteng property prices were languishing in negative territory for most of 2023 and 2024. KZN is up 2.8% year to date, while the Western Cape continues to accelerate, reaching a multiyear high of 7.2% in October.
Encouragingly, estate agents point to several high-end sales being clinched in Joburg this year, at prices last seen before the pandemic. A lavish 911m² penthouse was sold off-plan for R45m in Olympus Sandton, a new 24-storey mixed-use building opposite Discovery’s headquarters. The FM believes it’s the highest price paid for a Sandton apartment since 2018, when a 580m² pad in South Africa’s tallest building, The Leonardo, reportedly fetched R60m.
Yael Geffen, CEO of Lew Geffen Sotheby’s International Realty, says: “We’ve noticed a definite change in the tone of the Joburg market this year.” The group’s average sale price for the city has climbed about 8% in the 12 months to end-October — from R2.7m to R2.9m. She adds that the group has seen a marked increase at Joburg’s upper end, with 14 sales concluded in the R10m-R30m range this year. “There’s no doubt we’ll see an even stronger performance from Joburg next year,” says Geffen.
Though South Africa’s housing market appears poised for better days, it won’t be a blanket recovery. Industry players say there’s likely to be a notable disparity in the performance of various provinces, cities and suburbs. That means “location, location, location” is as relevant as ever, with careful suburb selection required if you want to ensure above-market capital growth over the next few years.
The FM’s annual top suburbs survey, the 14th year that we’ve partnered with Lightstone, will no doubt help readers find these gems. The survey ranks suburbs in the four major metros — Joburg, Cape Town, Tshwane and eThekwini — in three average price categories: the middle market (R1.5m-R3m); the high end (R3m-R6m); and the luxury market, where homes typically trade for more than R6m.
The winning suburbs in each segment have achieved the highest house price growth over five years, which we believe provides the most reliable picture of post-pandemic shifts in homebuying patterns. Only estates and suburbs with at least 10 property sales a year have been included.
Notable trends in this year’s survey are:
- Cape Town’s top suburbs saw prices rise at more than double the rate of those in Joburg, Tshwane and eThekwini. The outperformance is driven by semigration (albeit at a slower pace than two or three years ago), with upcountry buyers lured by a well-functioning DA-led local government, as well as the city’s natural coastal beauty and outdoor lifestyle. A return of international buyers is further underpinning Cape Town house prices;
- There’s been a surge in gated community living, with particularly strong demand for amenity-rich lifestyle developments. Clearly, buyers are prepared to pay a premium for the peace of mind that comes with homeowners’ associations taking responsibility for security and maintenance, as poor municipal service delivery and ageing infrastructure continue to affect property values in many ungated suburbs, especially in Gauteng and KZN; and
- The shift to coastal and countrified areas that offer a secure, family-friendly lifestyle with easy access to the great outdoors (beaches, greenbelts, hiking and biking trails) continues to gain traction, no doubt supported by the work-from-anywhere trend.
Cape Town
The quaint coastal villages of Kommetjie and Noordhoek, on the southern peninsula, have pipped their posher and arguably more pretentious Atlantic seaboard counterparts in the capital growth stakes in this year’s top suburbs survey.
With a hefty 56% price inflation over the past five years, Kommetjie is the overall best performer across price brackets in all four major metros for 2025.
Once regarded by many as too secluded, Kommetjie has been a major beneficiary of the post-pandemic search for a more laid-back lifestyle off the beaten track. Today, it is popular for its uncommercial character and sense of community. It’s also known as one of Cape Town’s top surfing spots.
Tracey Reid-Daly, licensee for Seeff Kommetjie, says the local property market has performed phenomenally over the past five years. “Sales turnovers have reached record highs and house prices have virtually doubled.”
Buyer demographics have changed markedly, though. Traditionally, Kommetjie had few permanent residents, with most owners using their properties only on weekends and holidays. The closest high school was in Fish Hoek. But the opening of the Generations School and Waldorf at Imhoff Farm has put Kommetjie increasingly on the radar of younger families and Gauteng semigrants. Kommetjie is also attracting a growing population of European swallows.
Reid-Daly says family homes are typically priced in the R4.8m-R9m range while prime beachfront properties can fetch R10m-R25m.
Noordhoek, nestled below Chapman’s Peak Drive and overlooking the landmark 8km Long Beach, has also grown its barefoot luxury appeal in recent years. Prices have been pushed ever higher, with properties fetching less than R5m becoming few and far between.
Noordhoek offers semi-rural charm but is still within an hour’s drive of central Cape Town. It offers a good selection of upscale residential pockets and eco-friendly lifestyle estates. Crofters Valley, Chapman’s Bay Estate and Belvedere Estate all count among Cape Town’s best-performing suburbs.
Other attractions include a vibrant artisanal food scene, Cape Point Vineyards and Noordhoek Farm Village.
The winelands area of Somerset West, about 40 minutes from Cape Town’s city centre and a 15-minute drive to the university town of Stellenbosch, continues to increase its investor appeal. Demand has been fuelled by a steady flow of upcountry semigrants and German buyers.
The town, located at the foot of the Helderberg Mountain, a short drive to Strand and Gordon’s Bay beaches, has a wide selection of security and lifestyle estates to choose from. The latter typically offer newly built modern homes at competitive prices.
In the R6m-plus category, Boskloof Eco Estate has replaced prestigious Erinvale Golf Estate — one of last year’s high-end winners — as Somerset West’s best performer.
The estate, which has sweeping mountain and ocean views across False Bay, is situated on 51ha of private nature reserve. It offers luxury living with a focus on sustainability and is sought after for its “green” architectural credentials and indigenous vegetation.
Joburg
The centrally located “old money” enclaves of Sandhurst, Hyde Park and Westcliff — traditionally favoured by Joburg’s well-heeled — have again been trumped by gated golf and lifestyle estates in countrified surrounds on the city’s northern outskirts. As was the case last year, Dainfern Golf Estate and the upscale gated community of Beaulieu again appear in the top five rankings in the R6m-plus category.
However, there’s a new contender topping the upper-end charts for 2025: Saddlebrook Estate on the outskirts of Kyalami’s mink-and-manure belt. The equestrian estate notched up five-year house price growth of 23%, the only luxury area in Joburg that managed growth of more than 20%.
Saddlebrook, adjacent to Inanda Country Base, a world-class stabling and livery facility, has become a magnet for high net worth families seeking privacy and secure living in park-like surroundings with expansive open spaces. The estate offers large farm-style residences and Tuscan-inspired villas, set on sprawling stands of 1ha-2ha. Prices range from R7m to R50m.
Jade Eblen, PGP area manager in Fourways, says Saddlebrook attracts wealthy buyers who want to combine luxury living with a country lifestyle while having easy access to city conveniences.
Eblen cites the estate’s lifestyle amenities as key attractions. Equestrian enthusiasts, mountain bikers and runners have access to a 7km bridle path. There’s also a clubhouse with boardroom, lounge and entertainment areas, two tennis courts and a pool. The area offers top-rated primary and high schools and easy access to major highways, the Gautrain Midrand station and Waterfall City, which is home to Mall of Africa, several corporate headquarters and a Netcare hospital.
Dunkeld also makes its debut in Joburg’s top-end rankings. The centrally located suburb, with older, stately homes set in large gardens, draws affluent buyers looking for proximity to major business and retail hubs — Rosebank, Hyde Park and Sandton. It also offers easy access to top schools including St David’s Marist Inanda, St John’s College, King Edward VII School, Parktown High School for Girls, Kingsmead College and Roedean.
Perennial outperformers Thornhill Estate and Lakeside Village, a stone’s throw from Edenvale’s Modderfontein Reserve and golf course northeast of the city, reign supreme at the mid- to upper end of the market. What is driving these two estates’ above-market price growth? David Ingle, licensee for Seeff Edenvale and Bedfordview, says both estates rate highly for their sense of community and outdoor lifestyle amenities, parks, greenbelts and children’s play areas. And they offer buyers more bang for their buck than similar lifestyle estates in Joburg’s northern suburbs.
Thornhill, which is slightly more expensive than neighbouring Lakeside, offers a mix of townhouses and full-title properties typically in the R2.6m-R6m range. At Lakeside, expect to pay R1.3m-R3.1m for a sectional-title property and between R2.1m and R3.8m for a standalone house.
Tshwane
As usual, the Jacaranda City’s list of top-performing suburbs is dominated by country estates. Most are located in Pretoria East or Centurion. Mooikloof Equestrian Estate on the eastern outskirts remains Tshwane’s most prestigious residential address, continuing to attract the city’s wealthy set, including captains of industry, medical practitioners, politicians and diplomats.
Southdowns Estate and Cornwall Hill Estate, both near the historic village of Irene, and newcomer Monaghan Farm Estate near Lanseria airport, round out the R6m-plus winners.
Gerhard van der Linde, MD for Seeff Pretoria East, says Mooikloof offers spacious, opulent homes, many of which exceed 1,000m² under roof on large 10,000m² plots. Prices range from R5m to R30m. Key attractions include an equestrian centre with stabling and arenas, 24km of horse, mountain bike riding and hiking trails, a large dam, clubhouse and sports facilities.
Though Monaghan may technically be closer to Joburg’s northwestern suburbs, it falls within Tshwane’s Centurion borders. The low-density estate comprises only 264 properties spread across more than 500ha. Monaghan appeals to upper-end buyers, typically younger families, looking for an eco-estate that blends contemporary architectural design with sustainable green living — think veggie gardens, water harvesting and off-grid energy sources.
The estate has 32km of mountain bike, running and hiking trails, a Montessori School (up to grade 7), a relaxed al fresco-style Italian restaurant and an equestrian centre.
Waterlake Farm Lifestyle Estate, along Boschkop Road on Tshwane’s eastern outskirts, is another new entrant to the FM’s suburb rankings and tops this year’s R3m-R6m category.
Retha Schutte, PGP regional executive, says Waterlake’s “country meets city” lifestyle attracts buyers looking for rural tranquillity without having to sacrifice security and urban convenience. Spread across 300ha, the estate offers an equestrian centre and paddocks, a large dam for fishing (catch and release) and kayaking, extensive natural bushveld and free-roaming buck and birdlife.
Yet Waterlake is within an easy 8km drive from schools, shopping centres and hospitals. Schutte says the mix of property types, from affordable vacant stands to townhouses and premium homes, attracts a diverse cross-section of buyers. Vacant stands of 1,000m² are priced from about R1.2m, townhouses (two- and three-bedroom units with modern finishes, two garages and a garden/stoep) sell for about R2.76m, while larger standalone family homes come with price tags of R4m–R5.6m.
Irene’s charm is ascribed to its rural-like character and easy access to Tshwane and Joburg via the N1 highway. The leafy village offers homes on large stands (often 2,000m² plus) and is surrounded by plenty of parks and heritage sites including the Jan Smuts House Museum, the Irene Dairy Farm (dating back to 1895) and the Irene Country Club, one of South Africa’s oldest golf courses.
eThekwini
Homebuyers in eThekwini continue to favour the coastal belt of Durban North and the glam resort town of Umhlanga — or they tend to gravitate inland towards the rolling hills and valley vistas of Kloof, a 20-minute drive northwest of the city.
Umhlanga’s exclusive Hawaan Forest Estate is eThekwini’s only neighbourhood where the average sales price exceeds R6m. Contemporary Stefan Antoni-designed homes with all the bells and whistles blend with forest surrounds. The 64ha estate has easy access to the N2 freeway, business parks, Gateway Theatre of Shopping, King Shaka International Airport and some of the north coast’s best beaches and golf courses.
Durbanites are also starting to look further north, with the quiet seaside village of Umdloti, not far from Umhlanga, increasingly appearing on homebuyers’ radars.
Umdloti’s Selection Beach makes its first appearance on the FM’s suburb rankings, topping this year’s R3m-R6m category. Sibaya Coastal Precinct, about halfway between Umhlanga and Umdloti, as well as old-time favourites Glenashley, Izinga Estate and Glen Anil, also rank among the north coast’s top capital growth contenders.
Carol Reynolds, PGP area principal for Durban Coastal, says Umdloti and surrounds have become sought-after among those looking for relaxed beach living and ocean views. The area is expanding rapidly as the rollout of the upscale Sibaya precinct takes shape. The precinct is a huge development on a prime 1,000ha and offers a mix of residential, retail, commercial and leisure facilities.
Reynolds says prices in Umdloti start at about R2m for a two-bedroom apartment, R2.5m-R4.5m for a townhouse and up to R20m for a fancy beachfront home. Sibaya offers a wide price range as it’s home to various security estates, apartment blocks and retirement resorts. Its location within a five-minute drive from King Shaka makes it attractive to Joburg commuters. Prices range from R1.5m for one-bedroom apartments to R10m-R30m-plus for modern standalone homes in top-end estates such as Gold Coast and Signature.
Glen Anil, which shines in the R1.5m-R3m bracket, offers buyers a more affordable entry point to the north coast than many of its pricier neighbours. Reynolds cites “exceptional value for money” as a key attraction. Small three-bedroom houses can still be had for less than R2m. The area is popular among young families, given a choice of good schools nearby.
Then there’s the lush Kloof area, which has become popular among remote workers and outdoor enthusiasts seeking a reprieve from the city’s hustle and bustle. Kloof’s array of winning suburbs includes Winston Park, Everton, Cotswold Downs Golf & Country Estate and Hillcrest Park. The area has a farm-like atmosphere, dotted with country restaurants and plenty of biking, hiking and picnic spots. It’s also a stone’s throw from acclaimed private schools including Kearsney College and St Mary’s Diocesan School for Girls.
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