KwaZulu-Natal is a terrain like no other. Its rough landscapes are mirrored in its politics, whose dynamics put the province in a league of its own.
The 2024 elections were a game changer for KZN. The IFP, historically the custodian of Zulu identity, had appeared to be on the slippery slope to extinction after the death in 2023 of its founder and leader, Mangosuthu Buthelezi.
However, in the May elections, the IFP seemed to evolve into a party of the political centre. It won 18% of the provincial vote, as it had in 2019, but this time it secured positions in the coalition government that had to be formed and it clinched the post of premier.
The shock of the 2024 election was the destruction of ANC support in the province (down to 17% from 54% in 2019) by Jacob Zuma’s MK Party (45% from nothing). The DA got about 13%, the EFF 2% and the National Freedom Party (NFP) 0.56%. Since then, the province has been governed by a fragile coalition of the ANC, IFP, DA and NFP.
Unsurprisingly, MK has been pushing for a vote of no confidence against IFP premier Thami Ntuli. The NFP, with its single seat, holds the balance of power.
NFP president Ivan Barnes has declared that his party has lost confidence in Ntuli, accusing him of poor leadership, corruption and “complete disregard for accountability and transparency”. Barnes said his party would support the vote of no confidence scheduled for December 15 and, in a surprise move, suggested MK should join a ruling coalition.
Barnes said that, given the “overwhelming support” the electorate has expressed for MK, “we believe it may be prudent to allow [it] to take a leading role in any future provincial governance formation”. This has obviously caused unease for the ANC and DA. The ANC is desperate to retain some power in KZN despite its plunge in support, and the DA is always anxious to show it can influence governance for the good.
There has been some confusion over whether the NFP’s sole deployee in the KZN legislature, social development MEC Mbali Shinga, would support the vote of no confidence. She has reportedly said she supports the coalition and is there as part of it. But Barnes remains firm, saying the party directive is to support the vote.
Despite the threats, the GPU appears united. It can point to several achievements, such as maintaining stringent financial oversight on municipalities that helped to cut the provincial deficit from R9bn to R300m in a year, and its successful clampdown on the construction mafia.
Ntuli tells the FM he is not losing any sleep over the looming vote of no confidence.
When you analyse the by-elections since 2024, you will note that the IFP is continuing to do well, particularly in northern KZN
— Thami Ntuli
“When you analyse the by-elections since 2024, you will note that the IFP is continuing to do well, particularly in northern KZN. The GPU is united and has done very well. MK initially predicted this GPU would last only three months. We’ve defied that. The reality is that under this coalition, investors are returning to KZN in numbers.
“We’ve secured more than R100bn in investment pledges and we created more than 54,000 new jobs between the second and third quarters of 2025, one of the highest employment gains in the country for this period.”
Ntuli shrugs off the suggestion that the NFP may be negotiating behind closed doors with MK. “We are not shaken by their motion of no confidence. The NFP leader is simply chasing headlines and trying to make his party relevant. MK is too divided internally, and to govern you need to demonstrate stability.”
However, there are also rumours of talks by the provincial ANC to let in Zuma’s party and the EFF — which would mean the ejection of the DA from the government.
Far more than any other province, KZN is defined by identity politics. That’s why MK, despite its internal leadership battles and an apparent overreliance on the Zuma personality cult, will remain a factor and is expected to be a strong contender in the 2026 local government elections.
In recent by-elections both the DA and MK won several key wards. One of them was ward 17 in Mandeni in northern KZN, a former ANC stronghold, where MK triumphed.
According to the party’s provincial chief whip, Bonginkosi Mngadi, it “is ready and preparing to take over municipalities come the 2026 local elections. Those who wrote off MK are in for a surprise. We are on the ground and preparing to carry out the mandate from our people. MK is going to govern KZN.”
Of course, for MK local elections are uncharted territory, as it did not exist when the last edition was held in 2021. It has no track record in governing, which, ironically, it could use to its advantage. Already, the party is taunting the coalition partners. “The ANC has failed, the GNU and even the GPU are divided, that honeymoon is over. We are a government in waiting,” says Mngadi.
The DA is expecting a strong municipal showing by MK at the expense of the ANC. “eThekwini will have either a DA or MK mayor, that’s the reality we have to accept,” according to Dean Macpherson, the DA’s KZN chair and national minister of public works & infrastructure. The prediction, issued at a recent residents meeting in Umhlanga, north of Durban, was met by deafening silence.
eThekwini is governed by a coalition made up of the ANC with 96 seats (short by 16 of an outright majority), the EFF (24 seats) and NFP (one seat). The DA has 56 seats in opposition. It remains to be seen how MK’s provincial surge in 2024 will translate into municipal gains next year.
Still the dominant party in the metro, the ANC is trying to turn its image around. City manager Musa Mbhele has been on an aggressive drive to woo residents and businesses. He has been driving debt relief concessions, a clampdown on internal corruption, and projects aimed at boosting investor confidence.
Mbhele has shrugged off criticisms. A year-long investigation into the municipality and a turnaround strategy prompted by Thulasizwe Buthelezi, the MEC for co-operative governance & traditional affairs, appear to have worked in Mbhele’s favour.
But there’s another cultural dynamic in eThekwini. South Africans of Indian descent make up more than a quarter of the population. In some wards they make up more than 85% of voters.
Traditionally, this key voter base has voted for the DA or the ANC. The DA believes the entry of MK into the picture means many of these voters will switch to the DA from the ANC due to fears of a “Zuma takeover”. Hence the DA’s decision to field Haniff Hoosen as its mayoral candidate for 2026.
Some DA insiders have lauded his ability to “get things done”. Others say he lacks leadership qualities, and that he has an albatross around his neck dating from the 2021 riots that were sparked by Zuma’s imprisonment.
When looting and pillaging spread to Phoenix, a majority Indian area, some residents shot those they believed responsible. The DA appeared to take sides on an ethnic basis, erecting posters that read: “The ANC calls you racists, the DA calls you heroes”. The DA went on to win all the local wards, but the posters alienated many blacks.
Hoosen admits he was part of the DA group that came up with the idea of the posters, but says he regrets it and has apologised. He argues that voters need to judge the party by its service delivery track record, and that’s what he’s promising to deliver as mayor.
The DA can point to successful governance and clean audits in municipalities under its control. In KZN, the outstanding example has been in the uMngeni municipality under mayor Chris Pappas.
The DA also gained some unexpected and welcome ammunition from ANC leader Cyril Ramaphosa, who pointed out that DA-run municipalities have generally outperformed those run by the ANC. He encouraged ANC councillors to adopt “best practices” from the DA. This is an own goal that the ANC is still trying to recover from.
But anything could happen in KZN. Its unpredictable landscape is not for the faint-hearted.
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