NATASHA MARRIAN: Why Ramaphosa is going nowhere

President Cyril Ramaphosa’s rumoured exit from office after the G20 gathering next week makes no sense politically.

ANC power brokers may be looking for a way to fast-track their candidates (whoever they may be) to the country’s top job, but there are significant organisational and numerical impediments — unless Ramaphosa decides to leave of his own accord.

Sunday newspapers have been reporting about versions of a potential Ramaphosa exit and who would step into his shoes. There is a clear sense among some power blocs that the clock is ticking for the ANC and that its days in power are possibly numbered, hence the urgency in seeing their preferred candidates ascend.

From Ramaphosa’s perspective, he is going nowhere.

His special envoy, Bejani Chauke, made it clear in a statement last week that Ramaphosa has no desire to step down voluntarily, at least not yet. He describes the rumour as “disturbing and unfounded”, saying it is “devoid of truth and aims to cast aspersions on the successful build-up [to] the first-ever G20 summit on the African continent, with the sustainability and solidarity theme”.

There is the theoretical possibility that the ANC could “recall” Ramaphosa before he reaches the end of his term of office in 2027 as party leader. Both his immediate predecessors, Jacob Zuma and Thabo Mbeki, were recalled before the end of their second term. In practice this meant they also ceased at the same time to be president of the country.

But it is difficult to see Ramaphosa being removed this way. It would require the support of the majority of the party’s national executive committee (NEC), as well as provincial leaders.

Here is the major complication, which can be understood in the context of the most recent national conference, in 2022. At that time the faction aligned to Zuma was still very much within the ANC fold. Zuma’s political stokvel, the MK Party, had not yet been formed, and many of his acolytes were pushing back against Ramaphosa and his allies from within the ANC.

Former health minister Zweli Mkhize stood against Ramaphosa in 2022 and had become the de facto face of the Zuma faction inside the ANC, dubbed the “radical economic transformation” grouping.

There is no groundswell against him yet, despite attempts by his opponents to build one

Deputy President Paul Mashatile, who was the party’s treasurer-general ahead of the 2022 elective conference, denied being on any “slate” at the time. He maintained that he was running his own campaign and did not have a particular preference for Ramaphosa or Mkhize as president.

But Mashatile’s base in Gauteng, run by the so-called Adiwele grouping at the time, backed Mkhize. Their calculation was that a Mkhize presidency might be short-lived due to the Digital Vibes scandal he was embroiled in, which would then allow their candidate, Mashatile, to step into the presidency a lot sooner than expected.

However, Ramaphosa emerged on top in 2022, with an overwhelming majority over Mkhize. To make matters worse for the Gauteng grouping, the NEC elected at Nasrec was strongly aligned to Ramaphosa, more so than the NEC elected in 2017. And after 2022, with the formation of MK, remnants of the disgruntled Zuma faction have largely jumped ship or been neutralised.

Just last week, Malusi Gigaba was notified of his pending appearance in court. A vocal proponent of “disbanding the NEC” — or more precisely, “removing Ramaphosa” — Gigaba looks set to finally answer questions about the capture of key state institutions by the Guptas during his tenure as minister of public enterprises.

This does not mean there is no internal opposition to Ramaphosa, but there is no groundswell against him yet, despite attempts by his opponents to build one.

While Ramaphosa’s support in the NEC will naturally begin declining as factions position themselves for the next leadership battle, there is little prospect of any push from the current NEC for him to step aside soon. There are no solid reasons for it to do so.

The Common Sense podcast with the Social Research Foundation’s Frans Cronje has pointed out that Ramaphosa remains the single most popular leader in the ANC and across political parties among ordinary South Africans, citing polling by the foundation.

Ramaphosa’s numerical advantage in the NEC and the potential negative impact of his removal on the ANC’s 2026 local government campaign make a palace coup unlikely.

Chauke also highlighted another crucial factor — Ramaphosa’s election to the position of president in parliament was supported not only by the ANC but also by nine other political parties.

Chauke says: “President Ramaphosa’s political mandate stretches beyond party political interests. It is a mandate from the people of South Africa, from parties that represent more than 60% of the votes. It was the freely elected representatives who voted for him to be the president. He has a primary relationship with the mandate of the seventh parliament.

“If there is a moment when the president may consider shortening the term he has been mandated to complete, it will be when the parties represented in parliament decide that.”

The ANC may be in the driving seat of the governing coalition, but its own factional considerations no longer hold sway over the country — this is the hidden strength of South Africa’s GNU.